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A weekly investment podcast showing you how to make money in up AND DOWN markets.
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Tuesday Jan 05, 2021
Tuesday Jan 05, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Sunday
January 1, 2021
:32 1) Bitcoin, I’m no schoolboy but I know what I like.
2) Uranium, start me up
3) Cannabis, it’s all over now.
: 48 Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
: 51 Happy New Year. Please send your questions and feedback. Plan to be more consistent, build website, launch newsletter (free and paid), add guests (please send candidates), post more, etc. Need to monetize, I appreciate your help in advance.
Thank you for a great 2020. Let’s build and add value to our community in 2021.
1:38 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in. Mass affluent in their 50’s receives plenty of advice, I don’t see 56-year olds coaching 20’s. Enjoyed successes, suffered failures, learned, now I can teach.
2:17 ’87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts.
4:18 With that, here is where we are and how we did with our methodology.
4:38 Started this 7/1/20. GBTC/Bitcoin +110%, sold half after doubled in a month. North Shore Uranium/URNM + 40%. Cannabis/YOLO +24%. Overall, up 13.7% in 2H. Not bad, 60% invested.
5:47 Brings up another point—institutions need to be fully invested, hug indices to some extent. They have to own some financials, energy, biotech, etc. We can discover themes and exploit them. Focus on making money every year.
6:21 This year, more detailed, specific. Robinhood, Fido—symbols, what I buy/sell. Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
6:52
7:21
8:47
9:15 High volume breakout above $15 suggested sea change, then the news came, PayPal, Tudor Jones, etc.
9:51 Monthly chart even better. Look at NH’s volume accelerating to upside.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/bitcoins-on-track-to-74000-trader-says-as-crypto-nears-records.html
10:29 Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com
11:15
12:04 Pomp is all over crypto. I recommend the Pomp Letter and Podcast too. James Altucher too. To those who want to own Bitcoin directly, these two are good sources. Brokers, custodians, fees, etc.
13:00
13:17 Here are my 10 reasons I bought URNM from our 7/25/20 podcast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FD4J4StWpY&t=10s
I have relayed my buy/sell discipline, keep checking on bull case pillars. Here bullish points keep piling up.
14:22 North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF/URNM
https://www.urnmetf.com/posts/uranium-prices-inflection-point
Bakes’ Takes highlights…
14:39 Increasing Demand – The Expansion of the Global Nuclear Fleet
440 nuclear reactors operating globally
54 are currently under construction and expected to be operational by 2026, and an additional 110 are on order or planned.
Unlike the last decade when new nuclear plants coming online were balanced by old nuclear plants being retired, by 2040, the global nuclear fleet is projected to expand by 135 reactors.
More reactors will require more uranium to produce energy.
15:38 Shrinking Supply – The Market Is Already in a Supply Deficit Position
Uranium mining production is contracting just as demand is expected to increase. There are currently only 62 companies exploring for uranium compared to 420 just before the Fukushima incident.
Currently, mines are producing only 79% of the uranium required by utilities.
16:08 Wildcard – US Strategic Uranium Reserve
Nuclear power plants generate 20% of US electricity, but comparatively little comes from US mines.
If a US uranium reserve was established, this could further widen the supply deficit.
Why Prices May Rise
16:31 US and European utilities have largely run down their inventories, removing one source to fill that supply deficit. In order to entice mining companies to produce more uranium, prices need to rise to the $50-$60 cost of production.
16:51 Prettiest chart out there.
17:10 Fukushima ’11. We are just getting started.
17:44 Mexico legalize cannabis vote?
18:12 Legal marijuana in RI?
19:20 New—copper, China, EV’s, doing more work
19:55 Other thoughts—Why I invest in ETF’s vs. individual stocks (by and large). Past—interview CEO/CFO, extensive questionnaire, high and low analyst on Street, read 10-Q’s, K’s etc. Diversify. If you want, pick one of the Top 10 inside the ETF’s, as always, do and share your own diligence.
21:26 Bakes’ Take—Long term trends intact for bitcoin, uranium, cannabis, gaming and esports, and now, copper.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
21:38 Charlie S. NYC—Other crypto? Don’t know yet. Ethereum? Pomp and Altucher sources.
Bakes’ Take—Exploring crypto outside of bitcoin.
Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
22:20 Business casual 3 billion to play games by 2023.
23:15 Compound Show with Josh Brown--At 3 minutes or so--The dust never settles, just keep going. At 40 minutes—diversify away from your job. Don’t need another data center stock. Income tied to stocks market, own bit more cash, bitcoin, etc.
24:32 EV’s drive demand for metals—aluminum, scandium, silver, vanadium, copper, nickel, cobalt.
26:03 Guy Raz interviews Tim Ferris, for both sons, record what works and doesn’t each sales call. I wish I had done this more fervently.
https://tim.blog/2020/12/22/guy-raz-interviews-tim-ferriss-how-i-built-this/
27:00 Prof G podcast interviews Michael Saylor, CEO MicroStrategy, at 14:47, best rationale and explanation of Bitcoin’s benefits I’ve heard
https://open.spotify.com/episode/1VwUjvMNeoOeyiQwP3im6G
27:47 at 9 minutes or so, Bear Traps, Zero Hedge, bullish cases for uranium, institutional interest growing
https://anchor.fm/mining-stock-daily/episodes/All-Things-Uranium-The-Makings-of-a-Bull-Market-enlb95
28:31 Bakes’ Take—I like commodities, more than most growth managers. Energy, titanium in the ‘90’s. Fascinated by the electrification of autos and other machines. Bitcoin vs. pictures of dead presidents, Dalton, MA.
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
29:45 Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight on Nov. 18, predicting 22% upside, to $540. The stock delivered that in just four days.
More interesting still is that Tesla’s core car business accounts for only 43% of Jonas’s bull-case target. He expects that Tesla will eventually make more profit per vehicle selling network services and insurance than from selling the vehicles themselves. Tesla buyers today can pay thousands extra for full self-driving capability, or to unlock faster acceleration, or to upgrade infotainment systems on older vehicles. There’s talk of a subscription plan for battery charging. And so on.
31:07 The Economist—Mexico/cannabis. The deadline has been extended twice, first because lawmakers could not agree, then because of covid-19. The new one is December 15th.
Americans in 11 states buy cannabis legally for recreational use and will soon be able to do so in four more. They have less need to import illegal Mexican weed.
President-elect Joe Biden supports decriminalization (though not legalization).
More than a third of Americans now live in states with full legalization, and a record 68 percent support federal cannabis legalization, according to Gallup. This past Election Day, five states passed medical or recreational legalization referendums — including staunchly conservative states such as Montana and South Dakota — bringing the total number of legal states up to 15.
32:06
Arizona, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota. New Jersey’s opening could cause waves across the populous Northeast if it becomes a destination for buyers from the nearby states of New York, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania—leading those states to follow suit, for fear of missing out on tax revenue.
“N.J. could tip the scales of legalization on the East Coast,” wrote Eight Capital’s Graeme Kreindler, in a Wednesday note. With recreational weed legal under the laws of 14 states and the District of Columbia, he thinks nearly half the adult population will have ready access to cannabis. That could put pressure, in turn, on the federal government to at least ease federal financial restrictions on the industry—if not allow the drug under federal law.
32:56 Bakes’ Take—Cannabis is becoming mainstream. States need revenues, period.
33:06 Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
1700+ charts, but leveraged, bonds, little interest.
33:30 China, check your biases at the door
34:00 Def Leppard on line 2
34:33 Palladium, EV’s vs. GV’s?
35:10 Please note, watch volume, too thin for most, not us! Like this—sugar, corn, wheat and soybeans in one basket.
35:50 Vaccines—bought the rumor, selling the news. PFE, etc.
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36:38 Bakes’ Take—from 1700+ charts. China, interested though I detest Communism. Many commodities rising, inflation next, I hate bonds. Fade vaccine plays. In fact, ready for good Main Street news mean bad Wall Street News. Interest rates go up, stocks go down.
38:16 Bakes’ Takes Newsletters of the Weeks
Starting next week
38:20 Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
39:05 Barstool Fund--https://www.barstoolsports.com/the-barstool-fund. I like Portnoy, heart’s in right place, loved him on Josh Brown’s Compound Show, better than any politician imo.
39:51 Much needed levity—Kevin Hart, Zero F$%#s Given https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUVvcNgkWHM
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