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A weekly investment podcast showing you how to make money in up AND DOWN markets.
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Tuesday Oct 12, 2021
Tuesday Oct 12, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Friday,
October 8, 2021
:26 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.
‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you’d like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.
1:42 Thank you especially Charlie, Justin, Murph from this Luddite.
1:49 Supercast/Patreon levels. Weekly call with me on Discord, teach technical analysis, etc. You help me design the show. Guests I should reach out to. Text like I send to my sons. 610-331-4283.
2:39 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
2:50 Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
Jack—SOFI, 10-year yield
2:55 SOFI--$18.58, watch for big volume, plug into Google Alerts
4:20 Agree with thesis—student loans, restart in January, refi opportunity
4:59 Higher rates good for them, NIM widen?
5:30 Cross selling. Makes sense
5:34 Noto—Chamath, high praise
5:55 Compete with Robinhood, crypto?
6:09 JPM, etc. sick of fintech eating lunch
6:32 Bakes’ Take--$18.58 close! Big volume?
7;26 10-year 1.57% CLOSE, 1.7%, 1.765%, wait for close but seems likely
8:12 Charlie, NYC, SPCE—Virgin, dead money, SpaceX private widely regarded as the best, all losing money, early imo, Momentus/MNTS, Maxar/MAXR, Rocket Lab/RKLB, Ark Space/ARKX
9:39 SPCE—space tourism? Not where want to be, Chamath has sold lot of stock
10:33 ARKX—Close below $19.12, very bad, Close above $21.19, very good
11:13 Rocket Lab/RKLB—best looking chart imo, do more work
12:03 LMT—old space, nothing going on
12:26 Bakes’ Take—I encourage you to let markets point you to opportunity, rather than news, etc. RKLB possible, but rest of space is avoid. SPACEX goes public different story.
13:54 Square/SQ—close below 200 dma, big volume, great company, 144 P/E
15:18 Bakes’ Take—If you have a DDM you would bet your life on different story. Sell discipline kicked in works very well, if hit new highs so be it.
16:00 BUT…Good example for Bakes’ Takes+--I will monitor your stocks/ETF’s alert you of buy and sell points. What else would you like?
16:20 Charlie again-- very long-term secular bull market as a result of the democratization of finance and the stock market? Seems like there has never been so much dry power and new entrants into the market…doesn’t this mean (all things being equal) there are more people coming into the market which structurally over the long-term will lift asset levels?
16:32 “Increased retail activity could be contributing to record inflows into Equities this year so far—the annualized inflow of $1 trillion to global stocks in 2021 is greater than the cumulative inflow of the prior 20 years, according to BofA Global Research.”
16:56 Free trading, access over cell phones (which are now being put in the hands of billions of people world-wide) and a broader adoption/mass movement of financial education seems like the perfect cocktail of a worldwide buying spree…right?
17:28 These extrapolations, linear thinking, appear at the right arrow not the left, up 7x, you have only seen up, first time Fed can’t prop up market, all the above reverses
19:01 SPY—daily, gap down, close below 50, so far low volume rally to underside/resistance, just warning sign for now
19:50 Bakes’ Take—very long term, up and to the right, do that with 401(k) etc. But we are humans not robots, will panic at some point, I think I can help
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBFd0tZsQzs&t=1s
20:58 Generation Gamble, Melissa Lee, CNBC, docs will be different in bear market
21:31 GameStop/GME--$212 to $344 good call, now $173, $161.41 rising 200 dma, leaning to downside, what are future positive catalysts?
22:27 Won’t Get Fooled Again/Weekend in Greenwich largely over, screens for high short interest exploited
25:13 High quality SPACs rare, SOFI perhaps, still prefer shorting de SPACs, EV’s via SOGU
25:53 Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
26:46 URNM--$71, $75, $80 now, likely consolidating base from here to $98, building next launch pad, volume increasing nicely, 96 RS, let THIS winner run!
27:54 Copper/Sell discipline—50 dma crossed below 200 dma, if 200 dma turns down, gone, up 14% ytd, +18% since inception
URNM—Weekly chart. 50% retracement
URNM—Daily Chart?+ YTD $42.90, $86.31 More than double, obviously.
28:45 EUM—Short MSCI Emerging Markets, Fact Sheet, short Communism, I mean China, Evergrande, etc.
30:18 Bakes’ Take—Last week--Own some uranium here, I will alert you to dips. Dips in rest of market more likely, copper, short emerging markets, elsewhere. Getting tired, stay tuned.
30:45 Bakes’ Takes-Gray Swan
Now front page of WSJ! Liza Lin, James Areddy
32:55 Bakes’ Take-Taiwan, Evergrande, HK, Tech, list keeps growing!
Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
33:34 Odd Lots—Evergrande best explained
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34:06 Bakes’ Take— I treat like COVID, don’t panic, watch charts, but don’t dismiss.
34:49 Elon Musk, Kara Swisher at Code, fascinating, more space than cars, quit as TSLA CEO, SPACEX $100B last capital raise, more
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
Bakes’ Take—Default foregone conclusion. Hard to see completely contained.
36:53
Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets/Posts of the Week!
37:13 John Quakes @quakes99
37:48 Bakes’ Take— Newsletters of the Week
The Bear Traps Report, Larry McDonald
URNM/Uranium—nuclear is green
India down to 4 days of coal
Europe dependent on Putin’s natural gas
Kyle Bass—Nuclear best baseload option to combat climate change
Half of China’s provinces limiting electricity use
SPX tracking ’87
Evergrande becoming state-owned enterprise
41:20 Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
Bakes’ Much-needed levity…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQwtMmzdlhI&t=16s
41:48 Norm McDonald, Jerry Seinfeld, Comedians in Cars getting Coffee
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