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A weekly investment podcast showing you how to make money in up AND DOWN markets.
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Tuesday Mar 02, 2021
Tuesday Mar 02, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday
February 27, 2021
:30 1) GME-elastic cat
2) Allergic to red
3) Being right vs. making money
:46 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.
‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts.
2:07 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
2:12 Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
2:18 Bobby’s text--what’s going on with GME?
2:43 "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height" $22 launch pad to $483 to $40 qualifies, $35-$43 floor, bounce $65-$77 ceiling IMO?
3:23 Broke through $77. Gap at $212. Still staying away. Are you red?
4:53 Lot of kerosene mopped up
5:52 Bakes’ Take—Become allergic to red. The goal is to make money vs. being right. Thank you Ned Davis.
6:35 Murph—voice memo--Ethereum vs. Bitcoin.
7:12 My bias—chart first, prefer this, above 50 dma consistently, +183%, pure profit, the crypto companies putting on balance sheets, great question for Michael Saylor, small % of overall assets, need two?
8:53 19% of bitcoin market cap, distant #2, smart contracts? Both volume up on down days, watching, Yellen statement
10:29 Bakes’ Take—Given crypto small % of assets, chart, prefer bitcoin
10:45 Murph—voice memo—SOXX
11:34 IShares Phlx Sox Semi/SOXX—only neg is volume pick up on down days, could change, but not buy for me yet, shortage turn to glut, sector’s history, why I go chart first
12:33 NVDA—everyone’s darling, can’t earn enough to keep them happy
13:01 Bakes’ Take—Expectations likely too high for semi’s
13:20 Murph—voice memo—Ishares S&P Global Clean Energy/ICLN
14:10 IShares S&P Global Clean Energy/ICLN--$24.20 support, 23 mil gap up volume, 16 mil down day but close at high, looks ok long term
16:03 Bakes’ Take—Decent entry point for ICLN
16:11 Murph text—DBA vs. TAGS, recession play? No, Inverse to rest of market, yes, fact sheet
17:35 DBA--Broader—cotton, cattle, hogs, etc.
18:09 TAGS—prefer, China rebuild hog herd, more exposure, smaller, less liquid, good for individual investor
19:06
19:41 Bakes’ Take—Recession not risk, inflation is, like TAGS
20:18 TBF—Bonds suck, only question is how negative, it’s not a positive
21:22 Bakes’ Take—Bonds reversing years of appreciation
21:50 Bobby—chart
22:40 You are here, why bonds matter
23:09 Bakes’ Take—Valuations poor, can’t handle rates up much more, watch 200 dma’s
23:40 James VanDeventer
Hey Bakes, i liked the show from the weekend, specifically your comment about Bitcoin showing up on corporate treasury balance sheets, makes me think there’s still a clear supply and demand imbalance - for the time being at least. I’m curious what you think about emerging markets (EEM specifically) making new multiyear highs right now. With a theoretically weaker US dollar does that add fuel to the fire? What do you make of yesterday’s (Monday 2/23) open and reversal? I’ve never seen anything like that, some of those AM prices in growth seemed ridiculous. Good stuff as always! -James
24:20 James, thank you. I will cover on the show as well but for now EEM uptrend appears intact. Not a fresh money buy for me but looks good if you hold it. Reversal if you mean overall market or Nasdaq, thank the 50 dma and Powell. He thinks no inflation above 2% for 3 years. He is looking at different charts than I am. As you know, I in essence shorted 20+ yr Treasuries via TBF. Fed can influence the short end, the long end much less. Please subscribe, share, like and review. Thx. Bakes
26:18 Bakes’ Take—Macro tough to do, no EEM for me
EEM—break down through 50 dma, 66% down volume
27:16 Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.
Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
27:36 +12.89% ytd, SPX + less than 2%, not bad, NO RED! Cut losses, let winners run!
29:12 YOLO--+83% Cannabis, states need revenues
29:50 URNM +75%—I mentioned I’m bullish on uranium, right? Years to go
30:51 HERO--+27%, how does GME become digital?
31:50 COPX--+26%, low volume pullback, best economist
32:28 BLOK--+16% Blockchain, picks and axes
32:53 Bakes’ Take-Like my etf’s, watching 200 dma’s know market is not cheap
33:13 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
33:18 At 20 minutes, Guy Adami, economy could be doing great, not stocks, discounting for last year
34:16 Bakes’ Takes—Economy vs. stock market distinction
33:37 at 49 minutes, GS could face activist, go subscription, buy Public, Prof G investor, more responsible RH, Twitter, buy CNN
36:21 Bakes’ Take—His predictions have been good
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
Bakes’ Take—
Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
36:27 John Quakes/Mike Alkin
Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4eo6LS9lto |
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39:50 Amhband- Sweet child of mine (Guns N' Roses) (Cover) (Tik Tok)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6GHPIwkXl0 |
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40:08 Brian Regan - Pop-Tarts Shouldn't Have Directions
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