It's not the '70's...yet! But 4.2% inflation is neither transitory nor bullish!

Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday  

May 15, 2021

 

:25 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.

 

:39 ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you’d like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.

 

2:22 Patreon levels. Weekly call with me, teach technical analysis, etc. You help me design the show. Guests I should reach out to. Text like I send to my sons. 610-331-4283.

 

3:40 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.

 

Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!

 

3:55 #GME—Need high volume breakout now! 11.1 mil shs

 

5:10 #AMC—Big volume, short interest high 93 mil shs, close above $14.54 launch point

 

6:13 Bakes’ Take –#GME—Now would be great, otherwise wedge didn’t work, #AMC—WSB asks about it, looks bullish

 

6:45 Charlie, TX—ETF question--The ETF uses an authorized participant (AP) to form creation units. For an ETF tracking the S&P 500, an AP would form a creation unit of shares in all the S&P 500 companies in a weighting equal to that of the underlying index. The AP would then transfer the creation unit to the ETF provider on an equal NAV value basis. In return, the AP would receive a similarly valued block of shares in the ETF. The AP can then sell those shares in the open market. The creation units are usually anywhere from 25,000 to 600,000 shares of the ETF.² 

The redemption mechanism helps keep the market and NAV values in line. The AP can easily arbitrage any discrepancies between the market value and the NAV during the course of the trading day. The ETF shares' market value naturally fluctuates during the trading day. If the market value gets too high compared to the NAV, the AP can step in and buy the ETF's underlying constituent components while simultaneously selling ETF shares.

 

8:24 Bobby—Economy extended? Stimulus, unemployment? vs. stocks? (my take)

 

9:24 #AAPL—great eps, stock didn’t care, market discounted

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScAeHsXIUqI

10:30 https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-is-playing-with-fire-11620684980

Stanley Druckenmiller, Christian Broda—The emergency conditions are behind us. No need to buy $120 million in mortgage, bond purchases.

 

11:42 Bakes’ Take—BAC, JPM, other AP’s looking for arbitrage, likely too small, fleeting for us to exploit. AAPL, tech, etc.

Stocks are extended. Druckenmiller concerns apply to Congress/Biden as well. Focus on what it is rather than what I think should happen.

 

14:07 Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.

 

Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups

 

14:43 Sold HERO, made 14%, sell discipline! PTJ-nothing good happens below the 200 dma, (after midnight)

 

16:11 Bakes’ Take—Like gaming, esports, but the money has been made…for now. #BakesTakes_ #bitcoin #uranium #cannabis #inflation #copper #sugar #soybeans #wheat #corn #blockchain #GME #retail #shortbonds

 

17:18 Bakes’ Takes-Gray Swan, new segment

 

 

 

 

19:41 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-fed-is-drucked-and-an-interview-with-jim-chanos/id1545205930?i=1000521689459

Druckenmiller OpEd, speaks to Bobby’s question, great discussion with Guy, Dan, and Dan

 

20:15 Bakes’ Take—Watch markets if bond buying is tapered. Needs to be done very gingerly. Please see 2018.

 

Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!

 

21:07 By Gwynn Guilford

 

23:19

 

They don’t have the luxury of ignoring the food and energy costs that are backed out of the price metrics preferred by policy makers, and they can’t help but notice the 17% jump in existing-home prices that isn’t directly figured into such gauges. For the average American household, food, energy, and shelter combined represent roughly 50% of income before taxes.

 

23:55 Bakes’ Take—It’s not the 70’s…yet. But it’s not bullish. Buy and hold if you want to…but nothing good happens under the 200 dma.

 

Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets/Posts of the Week!

 

Bakes’ Take— Newsletters of the Week

 

Bakes’ Take—

 

26:16 Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.

 

Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.

 

Have a great week. Bakes

 

Much-needed levity…

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqgcqZZt4Rg

26:43 Pablo Francisco - They Put It Out There - Little Tortilla Boy 2