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A weekly investment podcast showing you how to make money in up AND DOWN markets.
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Saturday Oct 03, 2020
Saturday Oct 03, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Sunday
September 27, 2020
:38 1) Trump likely to win, buckle up!
2) Watch out for zombies!
3) COVID-19 vaccines-buy rumor, sell news?
Bakes’ Takes—My/Our Portfolio
2:40 Clean Power, No Thanks to Al Gore
Nuclear energy took a leap toward being cost-effective. Yet the green lobby hasn’t noticed.
By
Andy Kessler
Sept. 20, 2020 4:29 pm ET
One NuScale cluster on 30 acres replaces 11 square miles of solar panels.
NuScale is not alone. Bill Gates has reportedly invested $500 million or more in TerraPower, which started in 2006 and was hoping to build SMRs in China before Trump trade tensions put the kibosh on those plans.
No one likes nuclear bombs and nuclear accidents—the industry needs a marketing makeover. The HBO series “Chernobyl” was haunting but overblown. How about some rebranding? Instead of nuclear, call it carbon-free heavy metals. No? Maybe particle power? Quark spark? Anything but nukes.
Either way, this sets up a great test. Joe Biden has promised to spend $2 trillion on clean energy and “achieve a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035.” If there is a Biden administration and it doesn’t encourage the rollout of nuclear power, then, like Messrs. McKibben and Gore and other alarmists, that’s proof they’re not really serious about climate change. So what is their agenda?
Write to kessler@wsj.com.
Long term positive for uranium.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
5:41 John, NJ—ETF’s vs. mutual fund? Mutual fund I like? Not really. I believe stocks move in groups, try to find best.
Bakes’ Take—FD, algos have made it tough to outperform, if you find one that does so consistently, invest. I want our themes (SUE-Silver, Uranium, eSports) to be layered on top of SPY and international index fund base.
Ideas, services you’d like me to add, etc. Please!
9:10 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/algorithmic-commerce/id1498802610?i=1000492345242
Scott Galloway—at 9 minutes or so, ACOM, WMT, why Tik Tok, no click vs. AMZN’s 1-click, include what you like and maybe didn’t know you would, return what you’d like, fascinating perspective imo
https://podcasts.voxmedia.com/show/pivot
w/ Kara Swisher, recommend highly, at 48 minutes ACOM mentioned here too
12:02 The James Altucher Show, big fan, almost weekly, Jim McKelvey’s, co-founder Square, Fed vice-chair, Invisibly, clever digital poll taking, my description not his, 3/3 digital primaries within a point! 55 minutes, Trump wins, vs. traditional polls showing Biden lead. Stock market predicts Trump, his to lose with month to go.
14:09 Altucher again, 22 minutes w/ Philip Stutts, 34 minutes—no new normal, 44 minutes 10% distrust government 3/20, 53% now, 101 minutes aggregate of public polls—electoral votes Biden 353, Trump 185 in the bank, aggregate of prediction markets Biden 290 Trump 248 need 270, PA “ground zero” right now. If win PA Trump 84% wins Presidency, 93% if Biden wins PA. Trump FL, NC PA if win those, re-elected. Trump African-American 15% vs. 8% ’16. Hispanics in FL Trump, especially Cubans. PA, WI key. Trump door-to-door 10 million doors, 1 mil doors PA, Biden phone. Fascinating debates. 96% turnout dems, 98% republicans, turnout likely record. Vaccine, economy, debates, RBG, last minute scandals ie. Access Hollywood, Woodward book, violence, etc. Trump wins.
https://adamanddrdrewshow.com/
18:50 Participation trophies=no losers, election outcome will not be accepted by half the country, worse than ’16 imo
Bakes’ Take—Losing side won’t accept it, will drag for weeks at least. Volatility has to increase. Doesn’t seem net bullish.
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-recognize-the-growing-ranks-of-zombie-companies-51601088940
20:02 Alexandra Scaggs
https://www.barrons.com/articles/10-stocks-to-buy-as-the-health-care-revolution-races-ahead-51601080662
21:36 10 Stocks to Buy as the Health-Care Revolution Races Ahead, According to Experts
By
Updated September 28, 2020 / Original September 25, 2020
Geoffrey Porges: We have spent a lot of time trying to figure out whether drug companies will make any profit from Covid-19 treatments or vaccines. The investment community has swung from thinking the virus would be a windfall for pharma and biotech companies to more or less discounting the expected value of Covid vaccines and therapeutics. Companies like Gilead Sciences [ticker: GILD], for example, have seen their shares round-trip. I don’t think we have ever had a more challenging forecasting assignment because we don’t know who the buyers of these products will be, what the prices will be, what the competitive landscape will look like, and even whether the products will work.
The medical professionals I talk to are profoundly skeptical about the basis for EUA approval. If you map out the timeline for a more general recommendation, or what I would consider adequate safety characterization, that doesn’t happen until the second quarter of next year.
Bakes’ Take—Buy the rumor, sell the news bigger risk than many believe.
25:00 Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
SPAC $’s match stock market highs. Some may be great, but…
26:20
In our view, looking out 5-7 years there is a large disconnect between rosy electric vehicle sales forecasts and the commodity infrastructure needed to fuel this much talked-up run. Next, think about the $3T of capex reductions which came out of the commodity space in recent years and left us with dramatically LESS of a supply threat. This crucial fact dramatically improves the risk/reward in the commodity and resource space looking out over the next 3 years.
The risk-reward setup is very attractive looking out to 2021-2023. ETFs in the metals / materials space include; XME, PICK, DBB, and CPER.
With inflationary pressures on the rise, we must realize the asymmetric pay-off in being long commodities. Relative to equities they are at multi-decade lows. Commodities cycles are historically much longer than the business or credit cycle, in our view, we are at the bottom of a generational super-cycle.
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Soybeans--$13.27 to $16+, now consolidating |
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Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
30:00 Much needed levity— https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4r-2emIpQU
Anthony Jeselnik, Trump roast
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jeselnik-rosenthal-vanity-project/id1434904509
30:25 Anthony, Gregg Rosenthal, Erica Tamposi, every podcast worthwhile imo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-FltLJ2hvM
30:57 Christopher Titus, Loser Trophy
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