Bakes' Takes podcast - Episode 16 - 6/22/20

Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday June 20, 2020

 

:20 1) Special Father Day’s Edition! My fabulous Baker Boys, Bobby and Jack are in the house. My inspiration for Bakes’ Takes.

:32 2) Jeremy Siegel on Barry Ritholtz’ Bloomberg Masters in Business Podcast—Bond yield low is in perhaps forever, capital losses coming for bond investors, 75/25 is the new 60/40. I’ll elaborate.

:52 3) How to SELL stocks.

 

:56 Bobby—JMU, QTS, 401(k), Betterment, why I do this.

Shoulder to shoulder.

 

1:56 Jack—Bucknell, SMIF (CPB, LULU), UBS

 

2:38 I try to help my boys, their friends, and now you.

 

3:20 Segment 1—Bakes’ Takes on Your Questions of the Week! Especially my sons’! Bobby asked me to further explain 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Same CSCO example I used for September presentation. Brief aside, Oct. ’87. Read everything, more how to buy stocks than SELL stocks.

 

6:03 Peak $80, see high volume price break, then feeble rally. Be on guard.

 

8:00 How to SELL—breaks 200 dma, sell 1/3, 50 dma slices down through 200 dma, sell 1/3, 200 dma declines sell last 1/3. Out at roughly $60, <$35 in 3 mos! And then…

 

8:46 2000 $80 down to $8 in 2002! 20 years later, still hasn’t reached $60!

 

10:22 Brock—PA, Hotels? Airlines? Cruise Lines?

 

10:55 Avoid Marriott/MAR

13:37 Avoid Delta/DAL

 

14:25 Avoid Royal Caribbean/RCL

 

15:27 Segment 2—Bakes’ Takes on Podcast Highlights of the Week

 

https://ritholtz.com/2020/06/mib-jeremy-siegel-covid-market/

Bullish on stocks, some argue he always is. I haven’t examined his track record closely. Stocks for the Long Run well-regarded. 8 mins—Low in bond yields is likely in forever. 28 mins—75/25 is the new, 60/40. 40 mins—bond investors will suffer capital losses. Projects 2-5% inflation per year, 2021-2020.

 

16:49 Bakes’ Takes—I can see the bond argument, but stocks yield 2%, if risk-free Treasuries start yielding 2-5%. Stocks from these valuations will have tough time.

 

17:21 60/40 -0.6% YTD, SPX -4.2%, AGG +4.8%

18:04 Bobby received text question. Max retirement, pay down debt.

 

20:06 75/25 -1.9% YTD, SPX -4.2%, AGG +4.8%

 

21:00 50/30/10/10 +0.8% YTD, SPX -4.2%, AGG +4.8%, GLD +14.8%, Cash 0%

 

22.27 Segment 3—Bakes’ Takes on the Reporters of the Week.

 

23:27 https://www.barrons.com/articles/three-early-contenders-in-the-fight-against-covid-19-51592579314?mod=past_editions

by Jack Hough

“There is no reason to believe that a combination of remdesivir and dexamethasone and convalescent plasma might not give additive benefits such that you could be reducing the mortality by 60% or 70%, not 30% or 40%,” says Porges.

 

24:24 You might have heard the name Dave Portnoy recently. He’s the founder of a satirical sports-commentary blog—or is it a high-attitude, bro-culture brand?—called Barstool Sports. With sports shut down, he’s rebranded himself DDTG, or Davy Day Trader Global. In Twitter videos, he talks about how stocks always go up, how making money is as easy as spilling Scrabble tiles to pick tickers, and why he thinks he’s smarter than Warren Buffett.

 

24:55 Boys—Do you or your friends follow him for stocks? Barstool Sports? Thoughts?

 

26:30 Please subscribe, review and share my Bakes’ Takes Podcast on Apple, Spotify or your preferred platform. Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.

Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.

 

Have a great week. Bakes

 

27:04 Much needed levity—Kyle Kinane, Bringing a Bag of Pancakes on a Flight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rugeFZ7BG8g