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A weekly investment podcast showing you how to make money in up AND DOWN markets.
Episodes
Tuesday Jan 26, 2021
Tuesday Jan 26, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday
January 23, 2021
:27 1) Bitcoin-$500,000?
2) SPAC mania
3) FB breakup
:47 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, discuss money and markets with my sons, please listen in.
2:07 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
2:45 Jack—What are SPAC’s?
3:13 Why so popular?
Long Term Outlook?
5:42 Depends on sponsor, their incentives, skin in game
6:18 Chamath/SOFI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2qsvAgWnI8
6:40 Full disclosure, I have not studied financials, so investigate EBITDA multiples etc. I like Chamath, good reputation, agree with SOFI’s disrupting position
7:11 Nikola/NKLA fiasco, fumes
7:40 Bakes’ Take—study sponsor, their incentives, first, then wait for deal, examine numbers, invest if you like even after pop
8:00 Anonymous—FFEGX 2030, FFIZX 2040
9:29 Bakes’ Take-Great approach, stay the course, tax-deferred, max company match, like int’l exposure, decrease risk as 2030, 2040 approaches, add Bakes’ Takes on top
10:10 John—Facebook/FB
10:35 1/14/21 broke 200 dma 245.64 on 66% above avg volume, not huge but worrying, normally would sell 1/3, lock in big gain, will go through rest of email, then address how to sell stocks
approximately $56B in cash--$19.53/share, $274.50-19.53=254.97/10.48 ‘21=24.3 P/E. agree ok
11b LTD roughly equals FCF, agree ok
25% growth
12:43 Who’s incremental buyer?—1.42 short ratio, 79.77% institutional ownership
13:28 Scott Galloway thinks stock goes up if broken up, WhatsApp would already be making Zoom miserable etc. if not inside FB.
14:46 Bakes’ Take—Valuation ok, advertisers love them, many others hate them, breakup assumed? Sum of parts likely greater, IG, WhatsApp, hold for now, break of 250 on big volume, problem
16:00 How to SELL stocks
$111 close below $117 200 dma, $19 low -82%, $71 still down -36%
John, Tim Ferriss, hope this helps
Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
18:20 The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC ), the vehicle I use, has risen from the buy point of $15 or so in October of last year to $48, up 220%, in three months.
The pull back to this level is a 1/3 retracement, very standard. Taking profits in a new tax year makes a great deal of sense. Yellen noise. Many skeptics call this a bubble. I disagree.
19:35 My guess is we stop at around the 50-dma and support at $27. 59, if we get there.
19:50 Another thing to consider--Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, who famously invested half a billion dollars of corporate treasury cash in bitcoin, is teaching a course to his peers February 3-4. I will be astonished
If that doesn’t generate a wave of fresh buying.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6755884801271582720/
20:30 URNM (Uranium)-40%+, 73%+ yoy
COPX-10%+, 65%+ yoy
21:15 Bakes’ Take— Bitcoin, uranium, cannabis, gaming and esports, copper, ag. Inflation will be an issue. Silver?
Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://www.businesscasual.fm/bitcoin-to-500000-the-winklevoss-twins-think-so/
22:25 Kinsey Grant, Winkelvii--$9T Gold/21M bitcoins=$428 mil, round up, checking out Gemini card, bitcoin rewards, beats airline miles
https://www.businesscasual.fm/should-you-invest-in-bitcoin/
24:25 Pomp, last 3 minutes
24:49 Kevin Rose, 29 minutes, Tether, “shit show for a few days” for Bitcoin
26:24 Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
27:00 Bakes’ Take—Bitcoin down this week on regulation concerns, doubt it lasts, buyers lining up
Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
27:09 Jim Bianco, Copper, other industrial commodities going north
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Bakes’ Takes--Newsletters of the Week
28:00 Bear Traps Report
John—FB #3, 4.26% of the QQQ’s, bearish RSI divergence
Murph—renewable energy names very stretched, parabolas correct hard
3Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_GFN3a0yj0 30:17 Thunderstruck, AC/DC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0h143iKVEo The Real Me, The Who
What are favorite workout songs?
30:36 Much needed levity—Gary Gulman, JCC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAzSZkJ4Y5M
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