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A weekly investment podcast showing you how to make money in up AND DOWN markets.
Episodes
Thursday Mar 04, 2021
Thursday Mar 04, 2021
Bakes' Takes Podcast 2/27/21 :43 YOLO--+83% Cannabis, states need revenues. #cannabis #bakestakes_ #podcast
Thursday Mar 04, 2021
Thursday Mar 04, 2021
Bakes' Takes Podcast 2/27/21 1:34 +12.89% vs. SPX under 2%, not bad. Allergic to red! Cut losses!
Tuesday Mar 02, 2021
Tuesday Mar 02, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday
February 27, 2021
:30 1) GME-elastic cat
2) Allergic to red
3) Being right vs. making money
:46 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.
‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts.
2:07 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
2:12 Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
2:18 Bobby’s text--what’s going on with GME?
2:43 "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height" $22 launch pad to $483 to $40 qualifies, $35-$43 floor, bounce $65-$77 ceiling IMO?
3:23 Broke through $77. Gap at $212. Still staying away. Are you red?
4:53 Lot of kerosene mopped up
5:52 Bakes’ Take—Become allergic to red. The goal is to make money vs. being right. Thank you Ned Davis.
6:35 Murph—voice memo--Ethereum vs. Bitcoin.
7:12 My bias—chart first, prefer this, above 50 dma consistently, +183%, pure profit, the crypto companies putting on balance sheets, great question for Michael Saylor, small % of overall assets, need two?
8:53 19% of bitcoin market cap, distant #2, smart contracts? Both volume up on down days, watching, Yellen statement
10:29 Bakes’ Take—Given crypto small % of assets, chart, prefer bitcoin
10:45 Murph—voice memo—SOXX
11:34 IShares Phlx Sox Semi/SOXX—only neg is volume pick up on down days, could change, but not buy for me yet, shortage turn to glut, sector’s history, why I go chart first
12:33 NVDA—everyone’s darling, can’t earn enough to keep them happy
13:01 Bakes’ Take—Expectations likely too high for semi’s
13:20 Murph—voice memo—Ishares S&P Global Clean Energy/ICLN
14:10 IShares S&P Global Clean Energy/ICLN--$24.20 support, 23 mil gap up volume, 16 mil down day but close at high, looks ok long term
16:03 Bakes’ Take—Decent entry point for ICLN
16:11 Murph text—DBA vs. TAGS, recession play? No, Inverse to rest of market, yes, fact sheet
17:35 DBA--Broader—cotton, cattle, hogs, etc.
18:09 TAGS—prefer, China rebuild hog herd, more exposure, smaller, less liquid, good for individual investor
19:06
19:41 Bakes’ Take—Recession not risk, inflation is, like TAGS
20:18 TBF—Bonds suck, only question is how negative, it’s not a positive
21:22 Bakes’ Take—Bonds reversing years of appreciation
21:50 Bobby—chart
22:40 You are here, why bonds matter
23:09 Bakes’ Take—Valuations poor, can’t handle rates up much more, watch 200 dma’s
23:40 James VanDeventer
Hey Bakes, i liked the show from the weekend, specifically your comment about Bitcoin showing up on corporate treasury balance sheets, makes me think there’s still a clear supply and demand imbalance - for the time being at least. I’m curious what you think about emerging markets (EEM specifically) making new multiyear highs right now. With a theoretically weaker US dollar does that add fuel to the fire? What do you make of yesterday’s (Monday 2/23) open and reversal? I’ve never seen anything like that, some of those AM prices in growth seemed ridiculous. Good stuff as always! -James
24:20 James, thank you. I will cover on the show as well but for now EEM uptrend appears intact. Not a fresh money buy for me but looks good if you hold it. Reversal if you mean overall market or Nasdaq, thank the 50 dma and Powell. He thinks no inflation above 2% for 3 years. He is looking at different charts than I am. As you know, I in essence shorted 20+ yr Treasuries via TBF. Fed can influence the short end, the long end much less. Please subscribe, share, like and review. Thx. Bakes
26:18 Bakes’ Take—Macro tough to do, no EEM for me
EEM—break down through 50 dma, 66% down volume
27:16 Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.
Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
27:36 +12.89% ytd, SPX + less than 2%, not bad, NO RED! Cut losses, let winners run!
29:12 YOLO--+83% Cannabis, states need revenues
29:50 URNM +75%—I mentioned I’m bullish on uranium, right? Years to go
30:51 HERO--+27%, how does GME become digital?
31:50 COPX--+26%, low volume pullback, best economist
32:28 BLOK--+16% Blockchain, picks and axes
32:53 Bakes’ Take-Like my etf’s, watching 200 dma’s know market is not cheap
33:13 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
33:18 At 20 minutes, Guy Adami, economy could be doing great, not stocks, discounting for last year
34:16 Bakes’ Takes—Economy vs. stock market distinction
33:37 at 49 minutes, GS could face activist, go subscription, buy Public, Prof G investor, more responsible RH, Twitter, buy CNN
36:21 Bakes’ Take—His predictions have been good
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
Bakes’ Take—
Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
36:27 John Quakes/Mike Alkin
Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4eo6LS9lto |
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39:50 Amhband- Sweet child of mine (Guns N' Roses) (Cover) (Tik Tok)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6GHPIwkXl0 |
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40:08 Brian Regan - Pop-Tarts Shouldn't Have Directions
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Sunday Feb 28, 2021
Sunday Feb 28, 2021
Bakes' Takes Podcast--2/13/21 1:59 Prohibition is over. Own cannabis (YOLO).
Wednesday Feb 24, 2021
Wednesday Feb 24, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday
February 20, 2021
:24 1) From Roaring Kitty to dead cat bounce
2) They’ve mopped up the kerosene, your matches don’t
matter
3) Congress beats dead horses
:46 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.
‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts.
2:03 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
2:18 Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
Bobby voice memo question-WSB/Reddit is a flash in the pan, here’s why
3:24 They’ve mopped up the kerosene, your matches don’t matter. SPAC w/ Epic/Fortnite?
5:13 20 years of short profits wiped out, 20 years for next set up imo
6:09 "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height" $22 launch pad to $483 to $40 qualifies, $35-$43 floor, bounce $65-$77 ceiling IMO?
7:25 Bobby-How to combat FOMO, sit on your hands, always another train coming, 5-10% above base breakout
9:03 TBF—will discuss more later, $16.81 2/12/21, THE breakout, 5-10%
10:09 Bobby voice memo question—Bitcoin only crypto?, “new way to interact with money”, bubble burst/lower prices
12:20 GBTC looked better than ETHE especially at $15 in Oct.
12:58Ethereum--#2, 19% of Bitcoin’s market cap, decentralized finance (DeFi) focus
13:50 Charlie-1) How can it be a currency with this volatility?
Cryptoasset more accurate, 12 years old or so, dollar as contrast, Congress—GME hearings, no Churchills, No Lincolns, unwatchable, government constant growth, debt exploding, dollar depreciating in our hands
16:32 2) Government regulate Bitcoin? Central bank power? How control a blockchain/abstract ledger? It does threaten them, main point
18:14 3) Biden infrastructure—see #1, think largely priced in
18:50 PAVE—best looking right now, on my monitor list, will alert you if I buy
19:32 Great call on URNM—thank you
19:42 Bakes’ Take—Bitcoin is THE leader, TSLA didn’t buy Ethereum for balance sheet, decide % of your assets you are comfortable, keep it small, buy 10% or so on down days, Charlie—even with volatility, how will government regulate?
Fight FOMO—another train
WSB/Reddit—flash in pan might be too harsh, very hard to find next GME, recalibrate expectations
Infrastructure—will watch PAVE and others, think already in prices, sell the news?
Like shorter videos—working hard to present something worthwhile daily
Bakes’ Take—What’s your take?
Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.
Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
22:25 My tweet Friday--That is a breakout folks, (ProShares Short 20+ Yr TRS/TBF). Interest rates are going up, bond prices are going down. Full disclosure: I have a position. #BakesTakes_
https://www.gemini.com/cryptopedia/what-is-bitcoin-and-how-does-it-work
Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-tape/id1545205930
25:28 On the Tape Podcast—Danny Moses, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan Hosts, Joe Saluzzi and Sal Arnuck Guests
Whole show is great, but last 20 minutes Joe and Sal suggest payment for order flow be eliminated, horrible for RobinHood, Bernie Madoff proposed initially?
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-algebra-of-wealth/id1498802610?i=1000509654182
27:15 Scott Galloway—3 mins. AAPL likely buy PTON, 48 mins. Get to HQ!
29:13 Bakes’ Take—Diversify accounts away from RH
29:23 Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”
If medication slashed cases 77%-“Miracle pill”. 55% of Americans have natural immunity. 15% have had vaccine. Gottlieb-25 0 million doses, 150 million Americans end of March. Population fatality .15%. Lady Gaga-shut up.
31:28 Bakes’ Take—Our lives and country are good and getting better, great. For stocks, Biden stimulation with our herd immunity pent-up demand, paradoxically negative.
Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
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Bakes’ Takes--Newsletters of the Week
32:16 Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b323QGBSW3U 32:53 Brad Paisley—No I in Beer
33:03 Much needed levity—The Best of Ralphie May on ESPN’s Mohr Sports https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K325TfH0RQ0
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New episode
Tuesday Feb 16, 2021
Tuesday Feb 16, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday
February 13, 2021
:26 1) YOLO (the ETF)-bullish cannabis, pre-Reddit!
2) Bitcoin goes corporate!
3) EV’s need copper!
:42 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.
‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts.
1:47 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
2:04 Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
Mike—SFL
3:23 SFL—if see 8.14+, 2.5 mils shs trade, going north, $12-14 target on weekly, $30 ’08 high
4:20 Bakes’ Take—ESG or not, need oil/gas for a long time, SFL promising
5:32 BlockFi, Gemini—bitcoin rewards cards, on waiting list, do you have one? Pros? Cons?
Bakes’ Take—What’s your take?
6:12 Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.
6:28 Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
By Daniel Kreps, VA marijuana legalization passed, like GameStop, thought Rolling Stone was out of business. Decriminalized 7/20. First southern state to legalize when passed. 70% approval. 16th state.
8:02 YOLO—non-Reddit YOLO, short interest isn’t same, but macro trend is better
8:48 By Reynaldo, Crypto News Flash, almost 7,000 companies picked up Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy bitcoin playbook.
10:20 Daniel Okorafor, Crypto Potato, Bill Miller to allocate $300 million to GBTC
11:09 Bakes’ Take-Bitcoin adoption accelerating
11:22 Chamath, TSLA/EV’s need a great deal of copper, and other metals
12:49 Global X Copper Miners/COPX—solid uptrend
Bakes’ Take—Bullish factors pile up regarding copper.
13:43 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://www.barrons.com/podcasts/streetwise
Jack Hough, Streetwise, Dan Ahrens, YOLO PM, like buying alcohol stocks at end of Prohibition, outperformed every industry ex-tobacco
15:12 Bakes’ Take—Cannabis spike extreme this week, but Prohibition over
15:42 Bakes’ Take--RobinHood didn’t screw you, they need you to trade
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18:08 Bakes’ Takes--Newsletters of the Week
Bear Traps Report, Larry McDonald
19:34 URNM!
20:03 WSJ, Daniel Michaels, Mini Nuclear Reactors
21:05 Bakes’ Takes—SMR’s early, but part of solution, good for uranium, and environment
Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
Much needed levity— https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VY14zcUM9SI 21: 49 Chris Farley, Adam Sandler—Lunch Lady
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Friday Feb 12, 2021
Friday Feb 12, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Wednesday
February 10, 2021
:22 1) Won’t Get Fooled Again, no more GME’s
2) Yes, more bitcoin
3) Yes, more uranium
:33 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.
‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts.
1:45 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
2:03 Mike--GME
2:33 $60 or so support
3:00 $483, $413—Resistance vs. $325 close
3:20 $250, $150, $60 support, $15 200 dma
3:30 Bakes’ Take—last week, Not going to bury the lead—sell your original investment, let rest of winner run, watch trades/closes below and above these levels, this week $325 to $50 pretty good call
4:24 $250, $212, $150, $60 resistance now, watch these levels, is stalls at $60 likely, SELL, could fill gap 150-212 but doubt it
5:06 Fundamentals, Valuations don’t matter for now
5:15 AMC, BB very similar. Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.
5:40 Bakes’ Take—No more GME’s, won’t catch a Melvin for a while, weekend in Greenwich
6:47 SIL—not buying it, literally and figuratively, discount wallstreetbets bullshit heavily!
8:44 $20.26 weekly high resistance
9:08 $7.71 support
9:43 $20 to $5.50, close to 80%, pretty good call
10:01 Michael Burry, AMC not another GME
10:45 Bakes’ Take—last week, Sell original investment, let ride if break above $20.26, close more important than intraday, below $7.71 likely back down to $5, this week we’re here, pretty good call
11:12 $28.77 resistance on monthly chart, doubt it gets there, $14.10 prior highs too
11:25 $9.69 support, prior high daily, close below a problem, parabolas usually correct 80%+
11:41 Bakes’ Take—Sell original investment, let ride if break above $28.77, close more important than intraday, below $9.69 likely back down to $6.51 or lower
12:06 $28 to $13.43, roughly cut in half, above support, still pretty good call
12:23 If you have RH or RR friends, please share this, send your stocks to BT, will give best view of locking in profits!
12:38 Kristin from NH—Bitcoin, yes or no, bought $2k, should I buy more? Yes, but be ready for big down days, said to Jack, first paper dollar
13:39 Volume looks good, $48 lid for now?
14:04 Boston Globe-Tesla buys $1.5 billion in Bitcoin, will accept as payment soon
15:11 URNM!
15:45 Murph-still like uranium?, hell, yes! Inning 2 imo
16:49 Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
15.3% ytd, blockchain etf new! Already up 21%+, still bullish on bitcoin, cannabis, uranium, esports/gaming, copper, agriculture, 15% dry powder looking for 2 new ideas
17:10 last week--Charlie—thus far I haven’t found Levi’s of bitcoin gold rush. PayPal Square etc. small % of rev’s
Found after last podcast
Amplify Transformational Data/BLOK--Blockchain in Google Alerts too
18:55 Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
SPY--NH’s, but up volume poor, all indices
QQQ--NH’s, volume lousy, watch out
IWM--Same
Bakes’ Take—Major indices seem tired despite new highs, watch out
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Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
21 :36 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzdNrxd76T4 Van Halen, Won’t Get Fooled Again
22:05 Much needed levity—Eugene Mirman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6bJiF80-Eg&t=1s
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Tuesday Feb 02, 2021
Tuesday Feb 02, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday January 29, 2021 :26 1) I’m not from Reddit, and I’m here to help 2) Listen to the Bells 3) Congrats-SELL (at least some) :46 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in. ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence. 2:26 Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike! Mike--GME 3:20 $60 or so support 3:47 $483, $413—Resistance vs. $325 close 5:27 $250, $150, $60 support, $15 200 dma 6:18 Bakes’ Take--Not going to bury the lead—sell your original investment, let rest of winner run, watch trades/closes below and above these levels Fundamentals, Valuations don’t matter for now, but here we go 7:25 GME—market cap=$22B Revenues down 30%, losing money Debt $1.16B -Cash 445.9M=$715M/69.75 shs=$10.25 sh Likely irrelevant, could raise money with elevated stock price 9:12 61 mils shs short, 69 mils shs outstanding 9:50 I will do same for AMC, BB later. Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Mike helping me with breaking news via Zoom. Please stay tuned. 10:37 What is a short? Sell high, buy low, Melvin borrows at $60 sell, cover/buy at $4, -93%, I guess thought going to zero, they were wrong, wallstreetbets figured it out then applied elsewhere. 12:08 Margin call explained 13:13 Bakes’ Take--Likely reason market down last week, had to sell non-reddit rebellion stocks to raise cash, meet margin calls 13:40 How a short squeeze happens 14:28 AMC $20.26 weekly high resistance 15:30 $7.71 support 16:00 not another GME 17:00 Bakes’ Take—Sell original investment, let ride if break above $20.26, close more important than intraday, below $7.71 likely back down to $5 17:35 BB $28.77 resistance on monthly chart, doubt it gets there, $14.10 prior highs too 18:13 $9.69 support, prior high daily, close below a problem, parabolas usually correct 80%+ 18:45 Bakes’ Take—Sell original investment, let ride if break above $28.77, close more important than intraday, below $9.69 likely back down to $6.51 or lower https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYZHtF-tV0k 19:09 Chamath, RR vs. Wall St. establishment, $500k to Barstool Sports fund 20:00 If you have RH or RR friends, please share this, send your stocks to BT, will give best view of locking in profits! 20:23 John—FB 21:11 Who’s incremental buyer?—1.42 short ratio, 79.77% institutional ownership Bakes’ Take—if close below 200 dma, sell Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups 21:32 -1.4% ytd, SIL cut losses, everything else still intact 22:34 My guess is we stop at around the 50-dma and support at $27. 59, if we get there. 23:35 Charlie fan mail! “clear bullish signal” looks like this, 10/2/20 16 mil shs 3x adv, 10/27/20 $15.67 NH > $14.78 24:50 Charlie—thus far I haven’t found Levi’s of bitcoin gold rush. PayPal Square etc. small % of rev’s 25:45 Yellen—dove, stimulus proponent, little impact on us as investors in my view 26:35 Bakes’ Take—Bitcoin/crypto uptrend intact in this era of money printing 26:42 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWEPSKkkdKQ 27:00 Chamath at 3 minutes, “RH was insolvent”, “cost investors millions”, “Mfer’s should go to jail”, June deepfuckingvalue, Michael Burry—Big Short, many stores FCF+, Chewy founder Ryan Cohen 10% become digital, 140% short, Melvin long puts for 4 years added 11/20 29:25 Bakes’ Take—Don’t have serious money in RH, needed $1b, restricting more stocks 30:15 Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week! Gregory Zuckerman—When the bears throw in the towel it’s not a great sign for markets Citron quits shorting Sounds like a bell! 31:30 Others, 5 in bar, CNBC 32:07 Bakes’ Take—Please listen to the bells. Next—Congress, 2ndys, HF response, gravity 33:23 Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week! 33:25 Bakes’ Takes--Newsletters of the Week Ben Carlson—9 uncomfortable facts about the U.S. stock market 35:07 Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like. Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer. Have a great week. Bakes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bg_Q7KYWG1g 35:36 My lovely wife, Suz, sent this to the boys and I. Great moving message. Please enjoy and share. 35:50 Much needed levity—Ron White, I got thrown out of a bar https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neUaSTSKFZc&t=3s New episode
Tuesday Jan 26, 2021
Tuesday Jan 26, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday
January 23, 2021
:27 1) Bitcoin-$500,000?
2) SPAC mania
3) FB breakup
:47 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, discuss money and markets with my sons, please listen in.
2:07 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
2:45 Jack—What are SPAC’s?
3:13 Why so popular?
Long Term Outlook?
5:42 Depends on sponsor, their incentives, skin in game
6:18 Chamath/SOFI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2qsvAgWnI8
6:40 Full disclosure, I have not studied financials, so investigate EBITDA multiples etc. I like Chamath, good reputation, agree with SOFI’s disrupting position
7:11 Nikola/NKLA fiasco, fumes
7:40 Bakes’ Take—study sponsor, their incentives, first, then wait for deal, examine numbers, invest if you like even after pop
8:00 Anonymous—FFEGX 2030, FFIZX 2040
9:29 Bakes’ Take-Great approach, stay the course, tax-deferred, max company match, like int’l exposure, decrease risk as 2030, 2040 approaches, add Bakes’ Takes on top
10:10 John—Facebook/FB
10:35 1/14/21 broke 200 dma 245.64 on 66% above avg volume, not huge but worrying, normally would sell 1/3, lock in big gain, will go through rest of email, then address how to sell stocks
approximately $56B in cash--$19.53/share, $274.50-19.53=254.97/10.48 ‘21=24.3 P/E. agree ok
11b LTD roughly equals FCF, agree ok
25% growth
12:43 Who’s incremental buyer?—1.42 short ratio, 79.77% institutional ownership
13:28 Scott Galloway thinks stock goes up if broken up, WhatsApp would already be making Zoom miserable etc. if not inside FB.
14:46 Bakes’ Take—Valuation ok, advertisers love them, many others hate them, breakup assumed? Sum of parts likely greater, IG, WhatsApp, hold for now, break of 250 on big volume, problem
16:00 How to SELL stocks
$111 close below $117 200 dma, $19 low -82%, $71 still down -36%
John, Tim Ferriss, hope this helps
Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
18:20 The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC ), the vehicle I use, has risen from the buy point of $15 or so in October of last year to $48, up 220%, in three months.
The pull back to this level is a 1/3 retracement, very standard. Taking profits in a new tax year makes a great deal of sense. Yellen noise. Many skeptics call this a bubble. I disagree.
19:35 My guess is we stop at around the 50-dma and support at $27. 59, if we get there.
19:50 Another thing to consider--Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, who famously invested half a billion dollars of corporate treasury cash in bitcoin, is teaching a course to his peers February 3-4. I will be astonished
If that doesn’t generate a wave of fresh buying.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6755884801271582720/
20:30 URNM (Uranium)-40%+, 73%+ yoy
COPX-10%+, 65%+ yoy
21:15 Bakes’ Take— Bitcoin, uranium, cannabis, gaming and esports, copper, ag. Inflation will be an issue. Silver?
Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://www.businesscasual.fm/bitcoin-to-500000-the-winklevoss-twins-think-so/
22:25 Kinsey Grant, Winkelvii--$9T Gold/21M bitcoins=$428 mil, round up, checking out Gemini card, bitcoin rewards, beats airline miles
https://www.businesscasual.fm/should-you-invest-in-bitcoin/
24:25 Pomp, last 3 minutes
24:49 Kevin Rose, 29 minutes, Tether, “shit show for a few days” for Bitcoin
26:24 Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
27:00 Bakes’ Take—Bitcoin down this week on regulation concerns, doubt it lasts, buyers lining up
Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
27:09 Jim Bianco, Copper, other industrial commodities going north
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Bakes’ Takes--Newsletters of the Week
28:00 Bear Traps Report
John—FB #3, 4.26% of the QQQ’s, bearish RSI divergence
Murph—renewable energy names very stretched, parabolas correct hard
3Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_GFN3a0yj0 30:17 Thunderstruck, AC/DC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0h143iKVEo The Real Me, The Who
What are favorite workout songs?
30:36 Much needed levity—Gary Gulman, JCC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAzSZkJ4Y5M
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Tuesday Jan 19, 2021
Tuesday Jan 19, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday January 16, 2021 :26 1) Trump 2024? 2) Clean Energy (Wind, Solar) vs. Uranium 3) 30-day lockdown? :42 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in. ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence. 2:46 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/trump-impeachment-2024-election-run-president-b1613385.html Need 2/3 majority vote in Senate to ban Trump from holding public office. Are the votes there? Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups 5:05 Bakes’ Take— Bitcoin, uranium, cannabis, gaming and esports, copper, ag, silver. 5:36 Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike! Murph’s voice memo—ICLN vs. uranium Sunrun/RUN--Buy point $20, vertical to $84, from June Plug Power/PLUG--Buy point as $4, vertical to $60 also from June 10:51 Technical analysis books!—O’Neil, Pring, Weinstein Bill O’Neil--How to Make Money in Stocks Bill O’Neil—How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short Martin Pring—Technical Analysis Explained, Suz! Stan Weinstein—Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets 13:50 Bakes’ Take—ICLN extended, well above buy point, watch base build, still prefer uranium. O’Neil, Pring, Weinstein. 14:52 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrwEdsT61U0 14: 58 Pomp Podcast—Ric Edelman early on bitcoin. Young wealth managers should be all over crypto. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9dFU7251uk&list=PLRRUgFWOe1xWqzo137tnKVvO7qQsZ1YNM 16:26 Start the year at zero. 17:03 Bakes’ Take—Bitcoin will be key to wealth management. Start year at zero. Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USWnrdW4Wns CNBC’s Scott Wapner 17:13 Gundlach—CPI will be near 3% May June https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akX4kemzelA 18:25 Brian Belski—at 3 minutes or so 30 day lockdown? https://anchor.fm/harry-jennings4/episodes/Theres-Still-Some-2020-Stuck-to-My-Shoe-eom5g3 19:48 Jim Iurio—at 3 minutes, he too thinks a 30-day lockdown likely. 20:12 Bakes’ Take—30 day lockdown? I really want them to be wrong. 20: 23 Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week! 21:35 Tim Rotolo--China’s 4th 5 year plan. Reactors up. Carbon neutral 2060. 23:20 Carl Quintanilla—Peak Covid is behind us 23:40 William Delwiche, All-Star Charts--Great visual summary. 25:20 Michael Saylor—Bitcoin for Corporations https://www.microstrategy.com/en/resources/events/world-2021/bitcoin-summit?CID=7014W0000014yhJQAQ 26:38 Bakes’ Take—Bitcoin AND cash on balance sheet. 26:45 Bakes’ Takes--Newsletters of the Week https://themarket.ch/amp/interview/were-at-the-beginning-of-a-commodity-super-cycle-ld.3092 Bakes’ Takes-Commodities up! Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like. Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer. Have a great week. Bakes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IKJa4ok83M Travis Tritt-Great Day to be Alive Much needed levity—https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cannibal-sex-doll/id1434904509?i=1000505052216 28:00 JRVP