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A weekly investment podcast showing you how to make money in up AND DOWN markets.
Episodes
Tuesday Jan 12, 2021
Tuesday Jan 12, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday
January 9, 2021
:50 1) Misfit morons/Trump, little impact—for now. All of them likely back in 2024. Brace yourself.
2) Bitcoin, major impact.
3) You, greatest impact.
1:30 Please send your questions and feedback.
2:00 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, talk to my sons, please listen in.
2:30 ’87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me.
3:37 Disclaimer—This is not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
3:49 Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
https://www.agweb.com/article/why-15-soybeans-may-be-reality-new-year
4:45 Teucrium Agricultural Fund (TAGS) Breaking multi-year downtrend on increased volume. Bullish.
6:20 Global X Silver Miners (SIL) Silver miners hitting intermediate highs on above average volume. I bought it and like it.
6:55 Bakes’ Take—Long term trends intact for bitcoin, uranium, cannabis, gaming and esports, copper and now, ag—corn, sugar, wheat, soybeans and silver. Unconventional perhaps but is working.
7:53 Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
Jack—Bakes’ Takes and Tower Financial Technology.
10:58 Trump’s push to delist 3 (why those 3? Don’t know) Chinese companies?
13:05 Brace yourself, Trump will be back
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-planning-media-channel-rival-fox-news-axios-2020-11
14:33 Bakes’ Take—Add what works, including quant systems. Trump will be back, sorry, brace yourself.
14:50 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-stock-market-is-heartless/id1456467014?i=1000504698674
Bakes’ Takes—Discount the news/headlines, heavily. The market is discounting the future.
17:08 Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
Bakes’ Take—Corn, sugar, wheat, soybean all going up.
19:14 Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
20:46 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9zu0eHzEno&t=9s
My 9/2/20 Bakes’ Takes Podcast. Three minutes on bond prices going down. Please watch because charts are very helpful and illustrative. In the past when money supply and gold rise like this (frankly, the money supply ascent dwarfs all prior periods), long term interest rates rise 250 bps. It could be different this time but I doubt it. Bitcoin and commodities, agricultural and others, point to the same conclusion.
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Bakes’ Take—Parabolas like Tesla and Bitcoin correct a lot and rapidly. Don’t be shocked.
26:09 Bakes’ Takes Newsletters of the Weeks
His predictions… Airbnb Hits $200/share and Gets Into Short-Term Office Space 27:26 Walmart Goes Deeper into Healthcare via Acquisition 28:12 Bitcoin Surpasses $50,000 Robinhood Is the New Menace 32: 55
Bakes’ Take—States insatiable thirst for revenue will feed cannabis and gambling trends for a long time.
Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
33:56 Much needed levity— https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vx70xoAL_yc Little boy caught on camera climbing out of bed to sleep with his dog
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9UzSBGTOZk John Pinette - I'm Starving - The Gym
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Tuesday Jan 05, 2021
Tuesday Jan 05, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Sunday
January 1, 2021
:32 1) Bitcoin, I’m no schoolboy but I know what I like.
2) Uranium, start me up
3) Cannabis, it’s all over now.
: 48 Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
: 51 Happy New Year. Please send your questions and feedback. Plan to be more consistent, build website, launch newsletter (free and paid), add guests (please send candidates), post more, etc. Need to monetize, I appreciate your help in advance.
Thank you for a great 2020. Let’s build and add value to our community in 2021.
1:38 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in. Mass affluent in their 50’s receives plenty of advice, I don’t see 56-year olds coaching 20’s. Enjoyed successes, suffered failures, learned, now I can teach.
2:17 ’87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts.
4:18 With that, here is where we are and how we did with our methodology.
4:38 Started this 7/1/20. GBTC/Bitcoin +110%, sold half after doubled in a month. North Shore Uranium/URNM + 40%. Cannabis/YOLO +24%. Overall, up 13.7% in 2H. Not bad, 60% invested.
5:47 Brings up another point—institutions need to be fully invested, hug indices to some extent. They have to own some financials, energy, biotech, etc. We can discover themes and exploit them. Focus on making money every year.
6:21 This year, more detailed, specific. Robinhood, Fido—symbols, what I buy/sell. Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
6:52
7:21
8:47
9:15 High volume breakout above $15 suggested sea change, then the news came, PayPal, Tudor Jones, etc.
9:51 Monthly chart even better. Look at NH’s volume accelerating to upside.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/bitcoins-on-track-to-74000-trader-says-as-crypto-nears-records.html
10:29 Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com
11:15
12:04 Pomp is all over crypto. I recommend the Pomp Letter and Podcast too. James Altucher too. To those who want to own Bitcoin directly, these two are good sources. Brokers, custodians, fees, etc.
13:00
13:17 Here are my 10 reasons I bought URNM from our 7/25/20 podcast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FD4J4StWpY&t=10s
I have relayed my buy/sell discipline, keep checking on bull case pillars. Here bullish points keep piling up.
14:22 North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF/URNM
https://www.urnmetf.com/posts/uranium-prices-inflection-point
Bakes’ Takes highlights…
14:39 Increasing Demand – The Expansion of the Global Nuclear Fleet
440 nuclear reactors operating globally
54 are currently under construction and expected to be operational by 2026, and an additional 110 are on order or planned.
Unlike the last decade when new nuclear plants coming online were balanced by old nuclear plants being retired, by 2040, the global nuclear fleet is projected to expand by 135 reactors.
More reactors will require more uranium to produce energy.
15:38 Shrinking Supply – The Market Is Already in a Supply Deficit Position
Uranium mining production is contracting just as demand is expected to increase. There are currently only 62 companies exploring for uranium compared to 420 just before the Fukushima incident.
Currently, mines are producing only 79% of the uranium required by utilities.
16:08 Wildcard – US Strategic Uranium Reserve
Nuclear power plants generate 20% of US electricity, but comparatively little comes from US mines.
If a US uranium reserve was established, this could further widen the supply deficit.
Why Prices May Rise
16:31 US and European utilities have largely run down their inventories, removing one source to fill that supply deficit. In order to entice mining companies to produce more uranium, prices need to rise to the $50-$60 cost of production.
16:51 Prettiest chart out there.
17:10 Fukushima ’11. We are just getting started.
17:44 Mexico legalize cannabis vote?
18:12 Legal marijuana in RI?
19:20 New—copper, China, EV’s, doing more work
19:55 Other thoughts—Why I invest in ETF’s vs. individual stocks (by and large). Past—interview CEO/CFO, extensive questionnaire, high and low analyst on Street, read 10-Q’s, K’s etc. Diversify. If you want, pick one of the Top 10 inside the ETF’s, as always, do and share your own diligence.
21:26 Bakes’ Take—Long term trends intact for bitcoin, uranium, cannabis, gaming and esports, and now, copper.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
21:38 Charlie S. NYC—Other crypto? Don’t know yet. Ethereum? Pomp and Altucher sources.
Bakes’ Take—Exploring crypto outside of bitcoin.
Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
22:20 Business casual 3 billion to play games by 2023.
23:15 Compound Show with Josh Brown--At 3 minutes or so--The dust never settles, just keep going. At 40 minutes—diversify away from your job. Don’t need another data center stock. Income tied to stocks market, own bit more cash, bitcoin, etc.
24:32 EV’s drive demand for metals—aluminum, scandium, silver, vanadium, copper, nickel, cobalt.
26:03 Guy Raz interviews Tim Ferris, for both sons, record what works and doesn’t each sales call. I wish I had done this more fervently.
https://tim.blog/2020/12/22/guy-raz-interviews-tim-ferriss-how-i-built-this/
27:00 Prof G podcast interviews Michael Saylor, CEO MicroStrategy, at 14:47, best rationale and explanation of Bitcoin’s benefits I’ve heard
https://open.spotify.com/episode/1VwUjvMNeoOeyiQwP3im6G
27:47 at 9 minutes or so, Bear Traps, Zero Hedge, bullish cases for uranium, institutional interest growing
https://anchor.fm/mining-stock-daily/episodes/All-Things-Uranium-The-Makings-of-a-Bull-Market-enlb95
28:31 Bakes’ Take—I like commodities, more than most growth managers. Energy, titanium in the ‘90’s. Fascinated by the electrification of autos and other machines. Bitcoin vs. pictures of dead presidents, Dalton, MA.
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
29:45 Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight on Nov. 18, predicting 22% upside, to $540. The stock delivered that in just four days.
More interesting still is that Tesla’s core car business accounts for only 43% of Jonas’s bull-case target. He expects that Tesla will eventually make more profit per vehicle selling network services and insurance than from selling the vehicles themselves. Tesla buyers today can pay thousands extra for full self-driving capability, or to unlock faster acceleration, or to upgrade infotainment systems on older vehicles. There’s talk of a subscription plan for battery charging. And so on.
31:07 The Economist—Mexico/cannabis. The deadline has been extended twice, first because lawmakers could not agree, then because of covid-19. The new one is December 15th.
Americans in 11 states buy cannabis legally for recreational use and will soon be able to do so in four more. They have less need to import illegal Mexican weed.
President-elect Joe Biden supports decriminalization (though not legalization).
More than a third of Americans now live in states with full legalization, and a record 68 percent support federal cannabis legalization, according to Gallup. This past Election Day, five states passed medical or recreational legalization referendums — including staunchly conservative states such as Montana and South Dakota — bringing the total number of legal states up to 15.
32:06
Arizona, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota. New Jersey’s opening could cause waves across the populous Northeast if it becomes a destination for buyers from the nearby states of New York, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania—leading those states to follow suit, for fear of missing out on tax revenue.
“N.J. could tip the scales of legalization on the East Coast,” wrote Eight Capital’s Graeme Kreindler, in a Wednesday note. With recreational weed legal under the laws of 14 states and the District of Columbia, he thinks nearly half the adult population will have ready access to cannabis. That could put pressure, in turn, on the federal government to at least ease federal financial restrictions on the industry—if not allow the drug under federal law.
32:56 Bakes’ Take—Cannabis is becoming mainstream. States need revenues, period.
33:06 Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
1700+ charts, but leveraged, bonds, little interest.
33:30 China, check your biases at the door
34:00 Def Leppard on line 2
34:33 Palladium, EV’s vs. GV’s?
35:10 Please note, watch volume, too thin for most, not us! Like this—sugar, corn, wheat and soybeans in one basket.
35:50 Vaccines—bought the rumor, selling the news. PFE, etc.
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36:38 Bakes’ Take—from 1700+ charts. China, interested though I detest Communism. Many commodities rising, inflation next, I hate bonds. Fade vaccine plays. In fact, ready for good Main Street news mean bad Wall Street News. Interest rates go up, stocks go down.
38:16 Bakes’ Takes Newsletters of the Weeks
Starting next week
38:20 Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
39:05 Barstool Fund--https://www.barstoolsports.com/the-barstool-fund. I like Portnoy, heart’s in right place, loved him on Josh Brown’s Compound Show, better than any politician imo.
39:51 Much needed levity—Kevin Hart, Zero F$%#s Given https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUVvcNgkWHM
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New episode
Monday Nov 09, 2020
Sunday Oct 18, 2020
Sunday Oct 18, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Sunday
October 11, 2020
:24 1) Stock market—Trump is still going to win
2) Bonds still suck.
3) Levity still much needed.
Bakes’ Takes—My Portfolio
:41 Every week a new college touts an esports initiative
Bakes’ Take—very strong trend
1:54 Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
Charlie, NYC—Biden victory lift stock prices—stimulus. Spending (infrastructure, healthcare), less trade friction. Biden victory more constructive for stock market long-term?
Stocks select Presidents, not the other way around.
Trump-lower taxes, regulation.
Biden-Infrastructure.
Predicting what gets through Congress beyond my pay grade. Not dazzled by any politician I see now.
6:43 Bear Traps Report
7:40 at 47 minutes Josh Brown reflects on Eisenhower, troops coming home, highways, etc., Obama, out of financial crisis, Presidents get too much credit, too much blame
Bakes’ Take—Focus on charts, groups. Let the market tell you what is promising. Ignore prognosticators.
Ideas, services you’d like me to add, etc. Please!
10:36 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ichI8T-QuCE
SPAC talk with Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, David Sacks & Jason Calacanis | from Episode 7—at 3 minutes, on why Chamath kickstarted SPAC movement
12:18 Jason Calacanis thinks Apple 12 is a joke, F-, no supercycle for upgrades, first time he is not buying out of gate, one man’s opinion but influential Silicon Valley angel investor
13:28 Revenue growth anemic, 9% eps growth this year, 19% next, numbers coming down, 37 P/E, volume picking up on down weeks in this case, not horrendous chart
Bakes’ Takes—SPAC’s proceed with caution. If AAPL rolls over markets going to have tough time, #1 stock in SPX, 7.3%, $2.1T market cap
15:15 China vs. Taiwan tensions escalating
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
By
Kirk Maltais
and
Will Horner
17:01 Wheat prices have hit their highest level in over five years in reaction to scorching weather, concerns over food insecurity brought on by the coronavirus pandemic and the lockdowns put in place to fight it.
The most-active futures contract for wheat trading on the Chicago Board of Trade closed Wednesday at just over $6.07 a bushel, the highest close for wheat since June 2015. Wheat futures have risen over 15% since Aug. 1, attracting investors who think the price surge could continue.
Dry weather this year has hit wheat-growing areas around the world, including the U.S., Ukraine and Russia.
18:08 Bake’s Take—Good example. Chart guides me to pay attention for other data points. My hope is our community grows and we all come up with off-the-beaten-path ideas we can all profit from.
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Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
19:08 Howard Marks’ latest memo. Great illustration.
21:00 Like I said—Bonds suck! Yields up, bonds down, in “safe” part of portfolio.
23: 53 Incredible!
25:54 Huge, unprecedented.
26:08 Biden/Dems—take 10-12% out of next year’s earnings? Doubt all priced in 27:15 Bear Traps Report
31:21 The Hustle 10/8/20
Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HKSKzk00ZE 32:21 RIP Eddie Van Halen, no Super Bowl?
Much needed levity—https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/when-are-they-going-to-get-to-the-vietnamese-condom-factory/id1434904509?i=1000493852180 33:17 JRVP—I listen as soon as it appears.
https://www.sho.com/the-comedy-store 33:47 Pryor, Carrey, Seinfeld, Williams…Fascinating and funny!
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Thursday Oct 08, 2020
Thursday Oct 08, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Sunday
October 4, 2020
:27 1) Bonds suck.
2) Agriculture perking up.
3) See #1.
Bakes’ Takes—My Portfolio
:41 HERO/Esports—working, others not, Still think Silver, Uranium, Volatility will rise. Not happy, poor start but only 3 months.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
2:05 Purpose! Past! Bobby and Jack! ’87, ‘90’s ending in bubble, lost ‘00’s, long only, long/short, successes and failures, please eavesdrop on our conversation
Bakes’ Take—Team effort!
Ideas, services you’d like me to add, etc. Please!
Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393
5:53 Industry veterans, degenerate gamblers & besties Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks & David Friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social & poker.
8:18 Josh Brown, Kathleen Smith, Renaissance, IPO’s, 8 minutes perspective, 41 minutes, Ant
Bakes’ Takes--
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
9:53
James Mackintosh
The gap between everyday experience and the yearly inflation rate of 1.3% in August is massive. The price of the stuff we’re buying is rising much faster, while the stuff we’re no longer buying has been falling, but still counts for the figures.
Bakes’ Take—Inflation, bond yields, expectations low, upside surprises likely
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13:04 Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week! 1700+ Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
Much needed levity—Ralphie May, Cuban Coffee https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoHHzSeGROc RIP
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Saturday Oct 03, 2020
Saturday Oct 03, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Sunday
September 27, 2020
:38 1) Trump likely to win, buckle up!
2) Watch out for zombies!
3) COVID-19 vaccines-buy rumor, sell news?
Bakes’ Takes—My/Our Portfolio
2:40 Clean Power, No Thanks to Al Gore
Nuclear energy took a leap toward being cost-effective. Yet the green lobby hasn’t noticed.
By
Andy Kessler
Sept. 20, 2020 4:29 pm ET
One NuScale cluster on 30 acres replaces 11 square miles of solar panels.
NuScale is not alone. Bill Gates has reportedly invested $500 million or more in TerraPower, which started in 2006 and was hoping to build SMRs in China before Trump trade tensions put the kibosh on those plans.
No one likes nuclear bombs and nuclear accidents—the industry needs a marketing makeover. The HBO series “Chernobyl” was haunting but overblown. How about some rebranding? Instead of nuclear, call it carbon-free heavy metals. No? Maybe particle power? Quark spark? Anything but nukes.
Either way, this sets up a great test. Joe Biden has promised to spend $2 trillion on clean energy and “achieve a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035.” If there is a Biden administration and it doesn’t encourage the rollout of nuclear power, then, like Messrs. McKibben and Gore and other alarmists, that’s proof they’re not really serious about climate change. So what is their agenda?
Write to kessler@wsj.com.
Long term positive for uranium.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
5:41 John, NJ—ETF’s vs. mutual fund? Mutual fund I like? Not really. I believe stocks move in groups, try to find best.
Bakes’ Take—FD, algos have made it tough to outperform, if you find one that does so consistently, invest. I want our themes (SUE-Silver, Uranium, eSports) to be layered on top of SPY and international index fund base.
Ideas, services you’d like me to add, etc. Please!
9:10 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/algorithmic-commerce/id1498802610?i=1000492345242
Scott Galloway—at 9 minutes or so, ACOM, WMT, why Tik Tok, no click vs. AMZN’s 1-click, include what you like and maybe didn’t know you would, return what you’d like, fascinating perspective imo
https://podcasts.voxmedia.com/show/pivot
w/ Kara Swisher, recommend highly, at 48 minutes ACOM mentioned here too
12:02 The James Altucher Show, big fan, almost weekly, Jim McKelvey’s, co-founder Square, Fed vice-chair, Invisibly, clever digital poll taking, my description not his, 3/3 digital primaries within a point! 55 minutes, Trump wins, vs. traditional polls showing Biden lead. Stock market predicts Trump, his to lose with month to go.
14:09 Altucher again, 22 minutes w/ Philip Stutts, 34 minutes—no new normal, 44 minutes 10% distrust government 3/20, 53% now, 101 minutes aggregate of public polls—electoral votes Biden 353, Trump 185 in the bank, aggregate of prediction markets Biden 290 Trump 248 need 270, PA “ground zero” right now. If win PA Trump 84% wins Presidency, 93% if Biden wins PA. Trump FL, NC PA if win those, re-elected. Trump African-American 15% vs. 8% ’16. Hispanics in FL Trump, especially Cubans. PA, WI key. Trump door-to-door 10 million doors, 1 mil doors PA, Biden phone. Fascinating debates. 96% turnout dems, 98% republicans, turnout likely record. Vaccine, economy, debates, RBG, last minute scandals ie. Access Hollywood, Woodward book, violence, etc. Trump wins.
https://adamanddrdrewshow.com/
18:50 Participation trophies=no losers, election outcome will not be accepted by half the country, worse than ’16 imo
Bakes’ Take—Losing side won’t accept it, will drag for weeks at least. Volatility has to increase. Doesn’t seem net bullish.
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-recognize-the-growing-ranks-of-zombie-companies-51601088940
20:02 Alexandra Scaggs
https://www.barrons.com/articles/10-stocks-to-buy-as-the-health-care-revolution-races-ahead-51601080662
21:36 10 Stocks to Buy as the Health-Care Revolution Races Ahead, According to Experts
By
Updated September 28, 2020 / Original September 25, 2020
Geoffrey Porges: We have spent a lot of time trying to figure out whether drug companies will make any profit from Covid-19 treatments or vaccines. The investment community has swung from thinking the virus would be a windfall for pharma and biotech companies to more or less discounting the expected value of Covid vaccines and therapeutics. Companies like Gilead Sciences [ticker: GILD], for example, have seen their shares round-trip. I don’t think we have ever had a more challenging forecasting assignment because we don’t know who the buyers of these products will be, what the prices will be, what the competitive landscape will look like, and even whether the products will work.
The medical professionals I talk to are profoundly skeptical about the basis for EUA approval. If you map out the timeline for a more general recommendation, or what I would consider adequate safety characterization, that doesn’t happen until the second quarter of next year.
Bakes’ Take—Buy the rumor, sell the news bigger risk than many believe.
25:00 Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
SPAC $’s match stock market highs. Some may be great, but…
26:20
In our view, looking out 5-7 years there is a large disconnect between rosy electric vehicle sales forecasts and the commodity infrastructure needed to fuel this much talked-up run. Next, think about the $3T of capex reductions which came out of the commodity space in recent years and left us with dramatically LESS of a supply threat. This crucial fact dramatically improves the risk/reward in the commodity and resource space looking out over the next 3 years.
The risk-reward setup is very attractive looking out to 2021-2023. ETFs in the metals / materials space include; XME, PICK, DBB, and CPER.
With inflationary pressures on the rise, we must realize the asymmetric pay-off in being long commodities. Relative to equities they are at multi-decade lows. Commodities cycles are historically much longer than the business or credit cycle, in our view, we are at the bottom of a generational super-cycle.
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Soybeans--$13.27 to $16+, now consolidating |
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Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
30:00 Much needed levity— https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4r-2emIpQU
Anthony Jeselnik, Trump roast
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jeselnik-rosenthal-vanity-project/id1434904509
30:25 Anthony, Gregg Rosenthal, Erica Tamposi, every podcast worthwhile imo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-FltLJ2hvM
30:57 Christopher Titus, Loser Trophy
New episode
Saturday Sep 19, 2020
Saturday Sep 12, 2020
Friday Sep 04, 2020
Friday Sep 04, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Sunday August 30, 2020
:24 1) SUEB doing ok, yes added Bitcoin
:36 2) Diversify away from your job
:44 3) How to SELL stocks
Bakes’ Takes—My/Our Portfolio
1:06 Two months, Up 1.4 %, URNM +10%+, HERO +5%+, URA +5%+, SIL -2%, GBTC -7%
GBTC—Bitcoin, “digital gold”, Fed new inflation stance, volatile, 19% premium to NAV
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
6:38 Bobby, Jack—diversify away from QTS, UBS! SUEB sure does the job! They are my audience, I invite you to eavesdrop, not investment advice (damn lawyers) but we eat home cooking
8:14 CNBC, others--Price, splits don’t matter
10:04 Sell Discipline II…
Royal Caribbean/RCL
$117 1/31, 116 2/3, 48 3/9=$93 vs $68=-37%
Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com
13:15 Bakes’ Take—Bonds are going down! 60/40 nuclear winter!
Please send your rationale/reactions
13:29 Bakes Take—Podcasts of the Week!
Kara Swisher, Scott Galloway—fan of both, left of me, most are, both can turn a phrase, i.e. Shakespeare, “weapons of mass entrenchment”, etc.—at 8 minutes or so Scott declares Tik Tok will not be sold, K-12 much more problematic than affluent 19 years old annoying parents at home
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
16:23 Bakes’ Takes—Charts/Tweets of the Week!
1700+ but ignore leveraged ETF’s, ultra, 2x, etc.
16:30 Sugar
16:46 Copper
17:19 Palladium
18:20 Natural Gas
19:06 Short Term Volatility
Medium Term Volatility
20:40 Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?
22:46 Bear Traps Report
26:30 Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
27:00 Much needed levity—Baby Chef
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veXsCLmghpM
Monty Python—Shoe Box in the Middle of the Road
Thursday Aug 27, 2020
Thursday Aug 27, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Sunday August 23, 2020
:26 1) New highs make no sense?
:29 2) Biden is irrelevant!
:33 3) I’m not afraid of COVID-19!
:40 Bakes’ Takes—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
Travis—New Highs makes no sense vs. Unemployment high vs. businesses not open fully
Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com
Bakes’ Takes—Charts/Tweets of the Week
9:07 The Bear Traps Report lgm@thebeartrapsreport.com
Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
25:45 Much needed levity—What Are Waiters Even Talking About? - Maria Bamford
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiN85rPBy3k
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