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A weekly investment podcast showing you how to make money in up AND DOWN markets.
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Friday Aug 21, 2020
Friday Aug 21, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Sunday August 16, 2020 :28 1) Nuclear Winter for 60/40 Portfolios! Bonds prices are going down! Am I being vague? :37 2) No football? Esports to the rescue? D-1 sport? : 49 3) Thank you Jon, James, Murph, Charlie for your questions! Ladies? Bakes’ Takes—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike! 1:35 Thank you also Samuel M. from Chicago, Barry P., Daryl C. from PA for subscribing to my YouTube channel! 1:46 Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com 2:02 Jon C., PA—SPX resistance $338 SPY resistance, $3380 SPX, wedging up, volume receding overall, down day volume greater than up volume, CNBC playing up too much IMO, here’s why... 3:22 I will watch intensely if/how we hit NH’s—volume? Follow-through? Close vs. intraday, I promise to keep you in the loop, market seems tired, I will stick with SUE 4:57 Jon, I don’t worry because I have scars, a plan, and a sell discipline! Hope this helps, pls respond if I need to expand or clarify! 6:25 Charlie S. PA— Thanks for another great episode Bakes, Thanks for another great episode and nice guitar skills. If only your son Jack was as talented as you.... I have a couple of questions: • What are your views on SPACs and their recent popularity/success? • 8:46 Do you think we're at an inflection point with regards to U.S Dollar dominance? Following the 2008 financial crisis- despite it being an American born crisis- the world fled to the safety of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets.Right now we're not seeing that. Do you think we're transitioning from a unipolar monetary system to a bi or even tripolar one? Thanks a lot! I'm a big fan and look forward to the Bakes' Takes website. Have a great weekend. Best, Charlie 7:31 SPAC’s above ’07 high, stock market peak. Bearish indicator. From July 25 show, Barron’s front page. 9:30 Dollar reserve currency? Not fiat. Euro, yuan? Podcast suggested an AMZN crypto, 60% of Americans Prime member? More trusted than FB. 10:56 James V. PA—Bill O’Neill, client since ’94, high PE’s ok, CANSLIM, Wilshire Blvd., mo works until it doesn’t, 13:46 MOATS=high multiples, shorts are kerosene, Mike DiCarlo—AOL, NSCP 14:36 Murph-NY—live below your means, pay yourself first 15:37 Month of expenses 401(k) max match—1/2 SPX, ½ ROW (Davis?), new HR benefits paperwork Pay off debts 3-6 months emergency fund Invest in tax-advantaged accounts—Roths? Invest more Have fun! 18:02 Bakes’ Takes—Bonds are going down! 18:15 MacroVoices-Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna, Vincent Deluard/StoneX—13-39 minutes, Gold is a high-yield asset! There Is No Good Scenario for Bonds Long-term treasuries have been a superb counter-cyclical investment in all recent bear markets: the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ year index rallied by 27% from January to April 20 this year and by 41% between June 2008 and December 2008. However, bonds’ upside is capped by how low yields can drop. … Going forward, it is impossible to imagine a realistic scenario in which the 60/40 portfolio continues to deliver high-single digit returns.. 19:42 https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-sameb-e700ba?utm_campaign=w_share_ep&utm_medium=dlink&utm_source=w_share Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week! Jon—dovetails to your question… 19:47 https://www.economist.com/business/2020/08/08/americas-stockmarkets-are-flying-high-its-companies-still-arent 21:26 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-investors-best-hedges-gold-and-tips-51596822059?mod=past_editions By Randall W. Forsyth But now, bonds have all but run out of basis points to decline. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovers just over 0.5%, while the 30-year offers a bit more than 1%. That has a lot of implications for portfolio managers, says Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, the big hedge fund. Not only do bonds yielding 0% provide no return over their lifetime, but their yields have little or no room to fall (assuming, as Prince does, that the U.S. won’t follow much of Europe and Japan into negative interest rates)... 23:28 Bakes’ Takes—Charts/Tweets of the Week 25:45 Much needed levity—Lenny Clarke asks Gronk if he Manscapes, “What are you, half-dolphin?” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvy2OFN5BAc New episode
Friday Aug 07, 2020
Thursday Jul 30, 2020
Thursday Jul 30, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday July 25, 2020
:24 1) Bonds are going down!
:38 2) Gold, silver, uranium are going up!
:46 3) Neil Brennan, 3 Mikes! Jordan Harbinger’s Podcast!
1:03 Bakes’ Takes—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike! John D., PA—love the podcast, phenomenal, turned buddies on to it, interested in URNM—gold? $4000/oz? silver?
Ridiculously good dovetail for number of topics I want to cover
3:22 Bakes’ Takes—Bonds are going down!
4:00 Interest rates up 1%, Bond Prices down 10%
6:30 Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
Gold Prices Hit Record as Dollar Drops
Weakening dollar adds momentum to gold’s summer surge, propelling metal above 2011 intraday peak
By
Joe Wallace
Updated July 27, 2020 2:05 pm ET
Monday’s record marked a milestone in gold’s bull run, which many traders rank alongside those of 2008-11 and the late 1970s. The gloomy outlook for the world economy, a decline in interest rates, rising tensions between the U.S. and China, and the dollar’s depreciation have fueled the surge as investors have bought assets they perceive to be havens.
7:50 “There are still a lot of things to be worried about, which is why gold is attracting all this attention and all this money,” said David Govett, head of precious metals at commodities brokerage Marex Spectron.
Mr. Govett added that gold could be knocked off course in the event of a correction in the stock market that prompts investors to sell precious metals to meet margin calls.
Charts extended short-term, ground up on ok volume, researching all charts this weekend, new ideas coming , stay tuned.
Bakes’ Takes—Charts/Tweets of the week!
10:18 @quakes99
12:00 That’s a bull point, bear story is another Fukushima, comments? Others?
12:35 Tweet of the week—Prechter, Elliott Wave, read all the books, 5 waves up, 3 waves down, VIX set to triple+?
14:20 Reasons volatility likely will pick up, expectations elevated
Covid-19—Deaths, vaccine timelines
15:41 Election-Trump should walk in given stock market up 50%, Biden big lead now, 3 months of surprises
16:25 Trump Clintons Biden?
Earnings/Economic recovery 2021? Back to 2019
Gold/Silver/Uranium/Inflation
China/South China Sea
Many others
Expectations leaning to positive, negative surprises will cause big swings
19:12 Pennant—wait for breakout or breakdown!
20:08 Growth vs. Value—Irrelevant!
21:04 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
Josh Brown, Ritholtz CEO, 6:00 SPAC skepticism,
22:48 credulity, ipo’s best ytd, Larry McDonald https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ TSLA $300 b market cap with 4% + bond yields, in SPX? Lags after!
23:46 Josh—play with house money, $400 to $1500 this year!
26:17 Please subscribe, review and share my Bakes’ Takes Podcast on Apple, Spotify or your preferred platform. Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
26:52 Much needed levity—Neil Brennan, 3 Mikes!
Friday Jul 24, 2020
Friday Jul 24, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday July 18, 2020
:24 1) Top 10 reasons I invested in Uranium (URNM, URA)!
:32 2) Fan questions/topics!
:38 3) Family Guy!
:50 Bakes’ Takes—Uranium, Charmingly laconic! Please do (and share) your due diligence, reminds me of oil and gas, titanium, potash, etc.
2:00
- Charts!
2:16 URNM-Daily, Volume 10x+ above normal! NH’s!
URNM—Monthly, Volume! NH’s!
3:15 URA— Daily, Volume 4x+ above normal! NH’s!
3:41 URA—Monthly, $140 to $11
4:11
- Fukushima 3/11, Japan reactors 48 down to 6, demand for 25 mil pounds of U gone, 9 years later supply demand in balance?
4:50
- Bear story—inventory last years, seems unlikely, should be depleted by 2021
5:26
- Part of green solution, vs. problem
5:47
- 2 shut in mines-Cigar Lake, McArthur River, and others brought supply down 23% since 2016
6:07
- Showing up in price $140 down to $24 up to $34
6:43
- 6-8 years to develop new large mine-NexGen? 2 years to convert and enrich into fuel, long trend
7:28
- Need $70 to incentivize future production, long term contracts
8:03
- Nuclear reactors up (highest in 25 years), demand up 1.5%/yr.
8:39
- I mentioned the charts, right?
8:46 Bakes’ Take on Uranium (thus far)—Battleship has turned, always looking for your data points, insights
9:26
Please send top 3 bull points, 3 bear arguments!
9:41
New theme-3 bull, 3 bear next week!—Mine? Yours?
9:58 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://open.spotify.com/episode/53JJCSXFgyd6obKGl4FBHt
Daren Heitman, Chris Gillespie—Their bullish inventory thesis—covered some in my Top 10, consume 200 mil pounds a year, takes 2 years to convert and enrich?, Inventory=1.4b pounds, so 5 years of safety stock, 3/11 Fukushima 25 mil pounds 7 years=175 mil pounds, Cameco, Kazatomprom—COVID 45 mil extra pounds now used up, need 25 mil pounds starting next year, next 12 months, out of mobile inventory, peak $140, Cigar Lake, McCarthur not coming back on line until U is $40-50’s
13:41 Bakes’ Takes—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike
Murph, NY-- what makes you choose 1 ETF over another if they track the same thing (SPY vs VOO vs IVV)? expense ratio main factor? .095% .03% .04% Or do you focus more on the liquidity? 95 mil, 4 mil, 5 mil Thank you again for your advice and help.
Matters little, Nike—just do it
16:04 Charlie, PA-- Thanks for the reading list and the shout out! As always I appreciated this week's podcast/video and am looking forward to next week's. With regards to website suggestion; one thing I find most financial news outlets fail to prioritize and explain well is the key economic data that gets released on a quarterly, monthly, or even weekly basis (machine tool orders, unemployment claims, ADP payroll data, etc).
implications were for financial markets and even various sectors, it would be extremely valuable! Despite being such significant catalysts, I feel as if these metrics do not get enough media coverage.
17:39 Bakes’ Takes-for bonds/FI maybe, for stocks I have never seen anyone profit from economic data to stock selection
18:47 Bobby, VA—How build diversified portfolio?
Bakes’ Take—dovetails w/ Murph’s question, SPY and ROW portfolio (Davis?), 401(k) max or retirement plan, tax free until withdraw
My insights after that done—ie. URNM, etc.
Ladies-the boys are hogging the mike please chime in!
21:37 Jack—COVID trials, rules different for them but…
Phase I
Phase II
Phase III
25:15 Bakes’ Take-Chart Mania! Tweets of the Week!
Tweet-Tavi Costa, SLVP extended, alert for pullback
25:50 Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
Jul 18th 2020
BEIRut
Their budgets don’t add up anymore. Algeria needs the price of Brent crude, an international benchmark for oil, to rise to $157 dollars a barrel. Oman needs it to hit $87. No Arab oil producer, save tiny Qatar, can balance its books at the current price, around $40 (see chart).
29:25 Please subscribe, review and share my Bakes’ Takes Podcast on Apple, Spotify or your preferred platform. Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
29:54 Much needed levity—Family Guy, Big Bang Theory!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmKJ0qwGJDI&list=PLCuG7PpjzYKyQIuLzUukxnJp4XqZ9pFx7
Friday Jul 17, 2020
Friday Jul 17, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday July 11, 2020
:33 1) Uranium 2.0! but wait, there’s more!...
:49 2) Chart mania!
:57 3) Forget about bonds! — Bill Miller
1:09 Bakes’ Takes—Fan Mail! Calls! Mike
Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel Comments
2:13 Ben H6 hours ago
URA is not the best uranium ETF anymore. They have rebalanced in the past two year out of alot of the uranium miners. There are two better pure play ETFs for uranium. North Shore Uranium ETF (URNM) and Horizon uranium ETF (HURA)
I was literally writing the exact same thing when I read your comment
REPLY
3:16 We can buy URNM, institutions can’t!
3:59 More uranium, less gold, copper. Own ex-US stocks for you.
4:55 https://azariascapital.com/media-room/
Daren, Chris, uranium thesis, you decide
6:12 Bakes’ Take on Uranium (thus far)—ESG? Bill Gates Small Modular Reactor/China, NFLX Special, no institutions (yet), no futures
8:07 Please send top 3 bull points, 3 bear points!
New theme-3 bull, 3 bear next week!—Mine? Yours?
8:53 Bakes’ Take-Chart Mania!
COVID-19 Deaths—Arguably most important chart!
10:10 PFE COVID vaccine news couldn’t levitate, reversed, closed at lows, big vol again
11:47 “Hopium”—Guy Adami CNBC, lot of resistance $36
12:48 Inside out day, big down volume
14:06 Volatility picking up, volume too, follow through?
14:54 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
Barry Ritholtz interviews Bill Miller! 5:00 bear/bull symmetry, 15 forget about bonds!, 30 mkt predicts economy, 47 fcf yield, roic, 51 what Fed is doing vs. what I think it should do, 55 NH’s eoy, 108 Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
19:42 Bakes’ Take—Fan questions of the week!
Charlie S., PA—Recommended reading list!
No particular order
https://www.amazon.com/One-Up-Wall-Street-Already/dp/0743200403
19:53 Peter Lynch—One Up on Wall Street
Own what you know, know what you own, Fundamentals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgqG3ITMv1Q
21:00 Michael Lewis—The Big Short, Extreme psychology
21:46 Bill O’Neil-How to Make Money in Stocks, How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short, Technical Analysis
23:08 Gregory Zuckerman—The Man Who Solved the Market, Jim Simons, Quants
23:50 Soon to launch Bakes’ Takes Podcast Website—What would you like me to write? Breaking News? BTS videos?
24:23 Please subscribe, review and share my Bakes’ Takes Podcast on Apple, Spotify or your preferred platform. Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
25:03 Much needed levity—John Mulaney, Kid Gorgeous
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWrKf5ik1i4&list=PLEjhYZoCgCRIiQt1yXZEsyTrqUd9zY8uu
Thursday Jul 09, 2020
Thursday Jul 09, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday July 4, 2020 :26 1) Fan mail from Harry in Houston! :31 2) Chart-mania! Catch it! Uranium? :39 3) Last Monty Python reference, maybe. George Harrison mortgaged his house, $5 mil, financed Life of Brian! :57 Bakes’ Takes—Fan Mail! Calls! Mike 1:07 Bakes- really appreciate you taking the time to shed light on the recent write downs, geopolitical affairs, and much more in relation to O&G in your latest podcast. I picked up Bakes’ Takes around a month ago from a post Jack shared on social media. It has been a great way for me to recap current events, broaden my investment horizon. I really appreciate how you not only speak to the content you share, but you also provide visuals. I started as a strict listener, but now find myself watching each episode because I am interested in seeing the charts you display. Thank you! -Harry 2:15 Sean FL, Mark MD, James PA! Bakes’ Take-Chart Mania! 2:47 Positive- >dma’s! Negative-vol light on up days 3:25 Negative-
Friday Jul 03, 2020
Friday Jul 03, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday June 27, 2020
:24 1) President Biden?
:29 2) Energy prices wild ride, respond to question from new XOM employee
:41 3) And now for something completely different! Led Zep and Pink Floyd financed Holy Grail! You’re welcome!
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
1:27 After Stocks’ Huge Quarter, It’s Time to Hedge the Market
By
Updated June 26, 2020 5:00 pm ET / Original June 26, 2020 12:12 pm ET
randall.forsyth@barron’s.com
Through Thursday, the S&P 500 index had recovered 38% from its March 23 lows, Nasdaq Composite up 46% and set record this past week, and the RU2K index of small-cap stocks 43%.
3:00 SPY -4.5% YTD, doubt many bought at the low!
3:20 The Dow Just Had a Very Bad Week. Why It Could Get Worse.
By
Ben Levisohn Ben.Levisohn@barrons.com
June 26, 2020 8:19 pm ET
The Fed, future payouts would depend on bank earnings—and bank earnings will start to look worse as pre-coronavirus quarters drop out and are replaced by Covid-impaired results.
Florida’s seven-day average of cases grew 7.8%, previous day’s 4.1%. Arizona’s 5.4%, from 2.9%. In Texas, the positivity rate hit 11.8%. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order rolling back parts of the state’s reopening, too little, too late. Florida, for its part, is banning alcohol in bars. Huh?
5:00 “We’re at a challenging point,” says Clifton Hill, a PM at Acadian Asset Management. “The market is worried about a second outbreak.”
5:27 Biden’s lead in the polls over Donald Trump has been widening over the past month, now holding a 10-point advantage over the president, RealClearPolitics’ average of about a dozen national polls. Trump’s approval rating has fallen back near the lowest levels of his presidency. Betting markets like PredictIt, which until early June had Trump well ahead, now give an average 21-point lead to Biden.
5:53 “If the election were held today, we believe Vice President Joe Biden would win as part of a Democratic sweep,” Sara Bianchi, head of U.S. public policy and political strategy research at Evercore ISI, told clients earlier in June.
6:15 FDR GOAT. Trump market positive for now. All the Presidents with down markets, one term. vs. Reagan, Clinton, Obama etc. Stock market picks the president.
220 Trump Election, March low, stocks down for his term, he’s toast.
8:55 Andy Laperriere, head of U.S. policy research at Cornerstone Macro, so-called Biden portfolio.
Bakes’ Take—Hillary ’94, Healthcare then, Long infrastructure, short big tech, now likely not going to work.
9:57 If there is a Democratic sweep, Laperriere expects higher volatility driven by concerns over increased taxes and regulation. He recommends using the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures exchange-traded note (VXX), which tracks the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX.
I still think VIXM, VIXY, VXX going to work by year end.
It’s month, Q end, researching all 1700+ charts now. Will report back next week
Bulls factors in their favor: The Fed is highly supportive; Congress looks ready to add more stimulus; and treatments are slowly starting to lead to better health outcomes. uncertainty about those outcomes is causing volatility to spike, VIX, rising to the mid-30s on Friday, above its long-term average of 19.
11:18 “Right now, volatility in the stock market is heightened, because there is friction between the past, present, and future,” John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, tells Barron’s. “The future is looking past Covid. The present is dealing with Covid. The past is explaining what Covid has done.”
The volatility is likely to continue.
11:59 India, HK, South China Sea, Taiwan
13:28 No cartoon but NK vs. SK escalating too
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/06/18/how-to-end-the-perilous-indo-chinese-border-spat
brutal clash on June 15th. Details remain sketchy. At least 20 Indian soldiers died, many after tumbling into an icy river. India says the Chinese also suffered casualties. China says little (see article). death toll worst in any clash between the two since 1967, first loss of life since 1975.
I wish The Economist attributed the authors, well-turned phrases!
14:26 reckless way to fix problems between two rising nuclear powers that are home to a third of humanity.
the last thing the wider world needs is an escalating slugfest between a dragon and an elephant over a lofty patch of frozen earth.
Many banks report losses with a lag and with limited detail, but delinquency rates on commercial-mortgage-backed securities (cmbs)—bundles of loans sold on capital markets—provide a barometer. In America this month they exceeded levels seen during the financial crisis (see chart 4). A fifth of debt payments on shopping properties are late; a quarter of those due on “lodgings”—including student housing, vacant since universities closed—have also been skipped.
Again, going through charts for ETF’s to profit from these trends. More next week.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/the-anatomy-of-a-rally.pdf
18:12 Howard Marks
Positives: Negatives:
Fed Political, financial restraints
Defaults, bankruptcies
Inflation, reserve status of
Dollar, U.S. credit
downgrade, increase cost
of deficits
Curve flattened mostly Second wave
Health system not swamped Stress/fatalities
Vaccines, treatments, tests Vaccine not as soon
Look through COVID-19
Positive economic news GDP-30% 2q, 10% unemp.
Return to work slow
Never re-open, jobs lost
State and city finances
Retail, travel, ofc. Buildings
2022 earnings>2019
Good and news on these fronts will create wide swings I believe
22:45 Coronavirus Erases Guidance From 40% of S&P 500
Companies that have pulled their outlook have collectively underperformed the broader market; ‘there are still many unknown factors’
by Alison Prang
All lead to increased volatility
23:47 Bakes’ Take—Fan questions of the week!
Text from Harry in Houston!...
Geopolitical—see China, South China Sea, Middle East has been quiet
Covid-demand hit still unfolding—six-month chart coming up
Saudis/Russia game of chicken seems to be over
Regulation-have heard little, President Biden’s platform?
Exxon Mobil Resists Write-Downs as Oil, Gas Prices Plummet
Some accountants have filed an SEC complaint saying the company should write down the value of shale driller XTO Energy. Exxon says it is in compliance with standards.
By
25:34 Christopher M. Matthews
Vs. Shell $22B, BP, Hess, OXY, CHV, too. Ex-accounting analyst Franklin Bennett accuses XOM of fraud, SEC whistleblower. He is security laws atty. , chmn. Prof society of O&G accountants. He says XTO acq. Should be written down by $17B and at least $20B other. Shale co’s wrote down $450B since 2010.
26:55 Oil $10 ‘86--$164 6/08, XOM might have a point, little time spent under $30
27:43 Nat Gas--$18 ’05 peak, <$2 all time low now!
28:22 Oil last 6 months nuts, $60 to -$37, $40 or so now
29:08 Ashton from Villanova—Inflation given Fed?
Note the date--2011!
29:55
2020!
Why QE Won’t Lead to Inflation
THINK Economic and Financial Analysis
by ING
April 10:
We see further downside risk to inflation in coming months. Huge falls in energy prices will continue to feed through into lower retail gasoline prices, utilities, and other components, which account for around 8% of the index. Shelter, at 33% of the basket, is also likely to be weak.…
We hear the argument that the Federal Reserve’s “unlimited” quantitative easing is bound to eventually generate inflation, but we heard that after the Fed’s QE1, QE2, and QE3 programs. The key question is, will the money find its way into the pockets of consumers, or is it going to stay in financial assets? Last time, QE contributed to asset-price inflation, yet CPI remained stubbornly low, and, at least at this stage, we see little reason for it to be different this time.
30:53 —James Knightley
33:00 Please subscribe, review and share my Bakes’ Takes Podcast on Apple, Spotify or your preferred platform. Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
33:35 Much needed levity—Monty Python, Top 10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCnK3B7Ftow
Netflix doc is great! Led Zep and Pink Floyd financed Holy Grail!
34:12 Larkin Poe—Rebecca and Megan Lovell. Big fan, voices, slide, clever live stream, FB covers, please check out https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dx0OPIY0tU
Wednesday Jun 24, 2020
Wednesday Jun 24, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday June 20, 2020
:20 1) Special Father Day’s Edition! My fabulous Baker Boys, Bobby and Jack are in the house. My inspiration for Bakes’ Takes.
:32 2) Jeremy Siegel on Barry Ritholtz’ Bloomberg Masters in Business Podcast—Bond yield low is in perhaps forever, capital losses coming for bond investors, 75/25 is the new 60/40. I’ll elaborate.
:52 3) How to SELL stocks.
:56 Bobby—JMU, QTS, 401(k), Betterment, why I do this.
Shoulder to shoulder.
1:56 Jack—Bucknell, SMIF (CPB, LULU), UBS
2:38 I try to help my boys, their friends, and now you.
3:20 Segment 1—Bakes’ Takes on Your Questions of the Week! Especially my sons’! Bobby asked me to further explain 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Same CSCO example I used for September presentation. Brief aside, Oct. ’87. Read everything, more how to buy stocks than SELL stocks.
6:03 Peak $80, see high volume price break, then feeble rally. Be on guard.
8:00 How to SELL—breaks 200 dma, sell 1/3, 50 dma slices down through 200 dma, sell 1/3, 200 dma declines sell last 1/3. Out at roughly $60, <$35 in 3 mos! And then…
8:46 2000 $80 down to $8 in 2002! 20 years later, still hasn’t reached $60!
10:22 Brock—PA, Hotels? Airlines? Cruise Lines?
10:55 Avoid Marriott/MAR
13:37 Avoid Delta/DAL
14:25 Avoid Royal Caribbean/RCL
15:27 Segment 2—Bakes’ Takes on Podcast Highlights of the Week
https://ritholtz.com/2020/06/mib-jeremy-siegel-covid-market/
Bullish on stocks, some argue he always is. I haven’t examined his track record closely. Stocks for the Long Run well-regarded. 8 mins—Low in bond yields is likely in forever. 28 mins—75/25 is the new, 60/40. 40 mins—bond investors will suffer capital losses. Projects 2-5% inflation per year, 2021-2020.
16:49 Bakes’ Takes—I can see the bond argument, but stocks yield 2%, if risk-free Treasuries start yielding 2-5%. Stocks from these valuations will have tough time.
17:21 60/40 -0.6% YTD, SPX -4.2%, AGG +4.8%
18:04 Bobby received text question. Max retirement, pay down debt.
20:06 75/25 -1.9% YTD, SPX -4.2%, AGG +4.8%
21:00 50/30/10/10 +0.8% YTD, SPX -4.2%, AGG +4.8%, GLD +14.8%, Cash 0%
22.27 Segment 3—Bakes’ Takes on the Reporters of the Week.
by Jack Hough
“There is no reason to believe that a combination of remdesivir and dexamethasone and convalescent plasma might not give additive benefits such that you could be reducing the mortality by 60% or 70%, not 30% or 40%,” says Porges.
24:24 You might have heard the name Dave Portnoy recently. He’s the founder of a satirical sports-commentary blog—or is it a high-attitude, bro-culture brand?—called Barstool Sports. With sports shut down, he’s rebranded himself DDTG, or Davy Day Trader Global. In Twitter videos, he talks about how stocks always go up, how making money is as easy as spilling Scrabble tiles to pick tickers, and why he thinks he’s smarter than Warren Buffett.
24:55 Boys—Do you or your friends follow him for stocks? Barstool Sports? Thoughts?
26:30 Please subscribe, review and share my Bakes’ Takes Podcast on Apple, Spotify or your preferred platform. Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
27:04 Much needed levity—Kyle Kinane, Bringing a Bag of Pancakes on a Flight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rugeFZ7BG8g
Thursday Jun 18, 2020
Thursday Jun 18, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday June 13, 2020
:18 1) If you listen to David Portnoy for Robinhood trades, at least listen to us as well.
2) We own 10% each VIXY, VIXM, volatility likely to increase.
1:00 3) Jeremy Grantham—Top 10% market valuation, bottom 10% economy.
1:20 VIXM—picking up on day market up big, not sure why. Volume impressive, 5x normal.
2:00 Thursday last week, we bought 10% each. Vol picking up.
2:21 10-year trend appears to be reversing. Up volume promising.
3:00 Forming base, $400 to $20, now at $40 or so. Any retracement of this reversed downtrend could be very profitable.
3:57 Please subscribe, share ask questions. We lay out our rationale.
5:16 Don’t use margin. Do use stop losses. Stay away from Hertz, Chesapeake, etc.
by Randall Forsyth
6:51 But what Mr. Market seems to have gotten wrong was to bid up apparently worthless stocks, on the assumption that what goes down must bounce up. There was the spectacle of Hertz Global Holdings (ticker: HTZ) soaring more than 100% at the beginning of the week, even though the automobile rental company had filed for bankruptcy.
7:28 Who’s used Vanguard’s new robo service? Pros? Cons? Robinhood? Schwab? Fidelity? Betterment? Acorn? Wealthfront? TD Ameritrade? E-Trade? Personal Capital? Stash? M1 Finance? Wealthsimple? Bloom? I appreciate the feedback!
9:27 Extreme bullish bets.
10:32 Top 10% stock market valuation, bottom 10% economy.
11:55 Ned Davis-great historical perspective.
12:10 Prior times -17%, -7.5%, -12%, -12%, -8%, -30%.
13:54 If resolves to the downside, SEF (short Financials could work).
14:40 Have to be honest this is bullish, at least was 6/5.
15:07 Have to be honest this is bullish, at least was 6/8.
15:30 60/40 -1.9% YTD, SPX -6.4%, AGG +5.0%
17:07 50/30/10/10 -0.4% YTD, SPX -6.4%, AGG +5.0%, GLD +13.6%, Cash 0%
17:45 Paul Macrae Montgomery—Magazine covers, especially non-business takes bullish stand, time to be contrarian.
18:12 Above euphoria level, 80% probability stocks lower one year later.
Please subscribe, review and share my Bakes’ Takes Podcast on Apple, Spotify or your preferred platform. Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
20:18 Much needed levity—Chris Porter, Wonka me
Wednesday Jun 10, 2020
Wednesday Jun 10, 2020
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday June 6, 2020
:28 1) I am wrong on stocks for now, but did not lose money.
2) I am overweight. Covid-19 beating MARSOC. Neither 1 nor 2 are permanent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGgBHRRtz38
My MARSOC video. Epileptic water buffalo.
3) It will be tough to make money in bonds from here.
1:10 60/40 Up 1.1% YTD, SPX -.80%, AGG +4.0%
1:56 50/30/10/10 Up 1.9% YTD, SPX -.80%, AGG +4.0%, GLD +10.9%, Cash 0%
3:26 You vs. Pros. You want to make money most years and compound. Pros focus on outperforming vs. an index. They are likely focusing on looking as good as possible when the show eoq and write investor letter.
I am going to find something to invest in, up 1.9% with less risk while we research before pounce not too bad.
5:35 I’m wrong for now, focused too much on volume. Usually works, didn’t this time. Friday first time up day on above average (25%) volume. Price is what you cash in. I dislike watching economic reports but the jobs report is clearly impactful.
SPY yield 2.3% down to 1.96%.
9:11 10-year Treasury yield surges above 0.9% after better-than-expected jobs report
2.5 million jobs, 70 bps to 90 bps +.
9:48 Widest spread in 10 years. Just starting to narrow.
10:09 Last 50 years bonds almost always yield more than stocks. 38 years bond yields > SPX yield. Parts of last 12 years it flipped. TINA effect bigger than I thought.
11:24 Last 40 years, 54 bps is the low, now 90 bps+. Tough to make money in bonds, rise to 137 bps resistance appears reasonable.
Bakes’ Take—Bonds are ballast for asset allocation, future capital gains will be elusive.
12:19 SPY—Close above 303, volume below average. Mischievous bastard.
13:01 David J. Bucknell—Set for readjustment? Re-examine target? Sell original investment? Let the rest ride. My sell discipline, long way from moving averages.
14:53 24 down revisions! Likely every sell-side analyst. Then beat and raise. Markets love that.
16:15 Stock is expensive, always has been. 74 P/E, 10x sales leaves little room for missteps.
16:20 Net margins 16% great, ROE 38% also great. 19% top line growth, 36% bottom line growth coveted in this market.
17:01 2.5 days short not much, rising shorts show still skepticism. Balance sheet, free cash flow in good shape.
Bakes’ Take—Take the initial investment off the table. Let the rest ride. Follow my sell discipline.
18:19 VIXM—picking up on day market up big, not sure why. Volume impressive, 5x normal.
19:18 I know it’s different this time, but…
19:32 Small caps overvalued, but not yet shorts, there is a difference.
19:54 We’re going to need a bigger chart! Extreme bulls/call buyers.
Please subscribe, review and share my Bakes’ Takes Podcast on Apple, Spotify or your preferred platform. Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
21:05 Much needed levity—Gary Gulman, College Professor Role Play, reminded after watching Joker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMOKMS1MURk