Stock Market Authority

Bakes' Takes podcast - Episode 13 - 6/3/20

Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday May 30, 2020

:28 TIK TOK—1) 60/40 has worked!, down only 1.4%, I’ll explain
2) 1700+ charts—Positive Biotech, Gold miners, Silver miners
3) Negative—Emerging markets/China, Real Estate, Small Caps, Financials, Junk Bonds

:54 60/40 is ONLY -1.4% YTD! In a Pandemic! Thank you, Mr. Powell! From my 9/10/19 presentation, Gold up 16.2%.

3:53 SPY—Close above 303, volume below average. Mischievous bastard.

4:55 1700 charts, 11 to focus on, 8 themes. Positive-Biotech, Gold, Silver, Negative—Emerging Markets/China, Real Estate, Small Caps, Financials, Junk Bonds
5:23 Short RE--Daily chart--$19 down to $13, How much retrace?

6:00 Short RE--Monthly chart--$50 down to $13, How much retrace?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdHDgsOaiBw
6:58 Kevin O’Leary (Shark Tank’s Mr. Wonderful) and Connor O’Brien, O’Shares ETF’s, 3:00 Kevin, 51 private investments looking to cut real estate use by 50%, 9:00 ETF’s WAY more cost and TAX efficient, 21:00 real estate down, banks hold the mortgages, hit next

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5Xjsm_I1_M
8:19 Jason Calacanis, Garry Tan—at 1:14, Jason’s co’s not renewing leases (SF), save $1 mil hire engineers, drop to bottom line

9:14 SEF—shorts financials $30 down to $20 support on daily, $200 down to $20 on monthly

10:28 Short MSCI Emerging Markets (40% China)
Monthly chart--$99 down to $18 how much retrace?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-moves-to-audit-chinese-firms-market-frets-over-what-comes-next-11590485401?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 by
Dave Michaels, Akane Otani
10:58 Decade+ Chinese companies raised billions on American stock exchanges while avoiding the accounting-quality checks that other public firms endure.
Legislation passed by the Senate—and now introduced in the House—would kick Chinese companies off U.S. stock exchanges unless their audits are inspected by U.S. regulators. 200 companies, $1.4 trillion

Alibaba and e-commerce rival JD.com Inc. not state-owned, others are fully or partially under Chinese government control. China is less likely to allow audit work papers for state-owned firms to ever be shared with overseas regulators.

Outlawed complying with overseas securities regulators without the permission of its own market supervisor and various components of the Chinese government.

12:39 BBH—Top 3 AMGN, GILD, MRNA ($23B!)—no products!

14:09 IBB—Top 3, VRTX, AMGN, GILD
Biotech looks promising. How much COVID-19? Expectations? 12 companies working on vaccines, 22 treatments, 13 testing. Price vs. politics? Margins? Acute vs. chronic? Herd immunity? 3 winners each, rest losers?

16:54 GOEX--Gold MINING stocks vs. bullion. Leverage. $15 to $30 100%

17:38 PHYS—bullion vs. miners. $11 to $14 25%

17:52 SIL--Silver miners, like gold +100%

18:16 SLVP—Silver miners, $6-$12 100%, more to come

18:31 Short RU2K, BUY RWM?

19:10 Short Junk Bonds (SJB)—Have to careful! Fed is buying junk and the long ETF’s!

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-markets-rally-could-linger-for-a-few-weeks-that-doesnt-mean-were-in-the-clear-51590800482?mod=past_editions
20:20 by Randall Forsyth Economic stats old as soon as they are released. My take—you can’t invest in them, better to focus on what are the future implications for my/our community? How do we make money!?
I always welcome your inputs and insights!

21:26 Please subscribe, review and share my Bakes’ Takes Podcast on Apple, Spotify or your preferred platform. Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.

Have a great week. Bakes

22:18 Much needed levity—Bill Burr, Paper Tiger, Royal Albert Hall https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c078AVNTjM4

Bakes' Takes podcast - Episode 12 - 5/27/20

Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday May 23, 2020

Mike, I’m sorry. I was wrong, cost you money, the opposite of why I do this. Didn’t foresee Shops, still think ad revenue going down more than Shops upside, but the market has spoken. Working harder to make up for this.

Watch time frames. Week not important. 321.86—295.48, -8%. Volume still light on up days. Seems tired. If big volume breakout close above 303, August ’19 resistance then suggests new bull market.
3:09

I will explain support and resistance as if you can’t see the SPY charts I am referencing. Climbing stairs/escalator. Then down the elevator. 4 years months up, 1 month down.
5:30

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tencent-levels-up-as-china-hunkers-down-11589379005 by Jacky Wong
Relates to potential EUM investment (short MSCI Emerging Markets). China, Taiwan, Korea. BABA, TCHEY, TSM
9:05

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sends-warships-to-support-malaysia-in-south-china-sea-amid-china-pressure-11589382717
by Niharika Mandhana
China claims nearly all of the South China see and objects to oil-and-gas operations that don’t involve Beijing. Lost tribunal claim—Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, Philippines. 3 U.S. naval ships.
10:05

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/05/14/america-files-a-new-financial-salvo-at-beijing
Tariffs, blame for Covid-19, now Trump Administration rid American exchange of Chinese stocks.
10:50

https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/05/21/china-punishes-australia-for-promoting-an-inquiry-into-covid-19
China’s ambassador to Australia, Cheng Jingye, recently warned Australia it was treading a “dangerous” path by pressing for an independent inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus (one that might reveal China doing more to suppress information about early infections than to quash the outbreak itself). If relations between the two countries soured, Mr. Cheng threatened, Chinese tourists might have “second thoughts” about holidaying Down Under. Families might wonder whether Australia really was the “best place to send their kids” to study. Ordinary Chinese might no longer want to “drink Australian wine, eat Australian beef”.
In the event, China this week agreed to an inquiry, in the face of international pressure at the World Health Organisation’s annual assembly (held online). But it did so after slapping tariffs of over 80% on Australian barley on May 18th, having already banned beef from Australia’s four biggest abattoirs on May 12th.
11:35

https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-hard-line-on-hong-kong-what-it-means-for-u-s-investors-51590166402?mod=past_editions by Reshma Kapadia
12:07

https://www.barrons.com/articles/just-as-rays-of-hope-were-appearing-china-tensions-flare-51589590940?mod=past_editions by Randall Forsyth
At the same time, another big threat emerged, as U.S.-China tensions escalated. The Commerce Department on Friday curtailed Huawei Technologies’ access to semiconductors that use U.S. technology. That led Global Times editor Hu Xijin—widely seen as speaking for Beijing—to tweet that China could retaliate against U.S. companies, such as Qualcomm (ticker: QCOM), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Apple (AAPL), or Boeing (BA).

In addition, the Trump administration ordered the federal employee retirement fund not to invest in an index that includes Chinese companies that, it warned, could be sanctioned for “culpable actions for the Chinese government with respect to the global spread” of the coronavirus.

Indeed, China is viewed with antipathy by Republicans and Democrats alike in this election year, Greg Valliere, chief U.S. strategist for AGF Investments, writes in a client note. “So, during the campaign, there will be a competition to see who can be the most anti-China,” he predicts.
An escalating trade war during what might be a depression? Haven’t we seen this movie before? And didn’t we hate its ending?
The Smoot-Hawley Act increased tariffs on foreign imports to the U.S. by about 20%. At least 25 countries responded by increasing their own tariffs on American goods. Global trade plummeted, contributing to the ill effects of the Great Depression. Sep 5, 2019
The Fed isn’t buying just Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, but also corporate debt through the bond market and exchange-traded funds, including those that deal in speculative-grade debt.
This reflects the change in how credit works in the real world. Instead of Fed asset purchases putting more reserves into the banks so they can make loans, monetary policy now works largely via the financial markets.
The central bank has gone light years beyond what’s in elementary economics textbooks to combat the economic slide, expanding its balance sheet by $2.6 trillion since early March to $6.9 trillion, including initial purchases of $305 million in corporate bond ETFs.
12:27

Bakes' Takes Podcast - Episode 11 5/13/20

Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes – May 13, 2020

The volume is light on the up days. Lot of resistance from here to 300. The economy is not the stock market. Trump predicting pent up demand...

Bakes' Takes Podcast - Episode 10 5/5/20

Please subscribe, review and share my Bakes’ Takes Podcast on Apple, Spotify or your preferred platform. Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen

Bakes' Takes Podcast - Episode 9 4/21/20

new episode

Bakes' Takes Podcast, Episode 8, Brian May rocks literally and figuratively, Saturday, 4/11/20

Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday April 11, 2020 https:/ /www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-all-stars-podcasts/825-all-stars-100-dr-pippa-malmgren-socio-economic-implications-of-the-coronavirus-crisis Erik and Patrick do a great, thorough job as always. Dr. Pippa Malmgren discusses at 6 minutes inflation’s eventual return. Supply chain efficiencies and technology advancements deflationary forces now gone and money printing ongoing. She and WSJ point to egg price inflation, 229% in March! Her views at 25 minutes regarding multi-use properties, residential, urban farms, grocery stores, etc. are fascinating. I recommend them especially to my real estate friends. https://omny.fm/shows/the-james-altucher-show/571-andrew-huberman James produces one of my favorite podcasts. Period. Dr. Huberman’s proposed technique at 23 minutes or so is great. Put down your screen, defocus your eyes and take in a panoramic view of the horizon, as far as you can. Meaningful stress reduction. At 1:09, get as much sunlight in your eyes during the day as you can. At 1:14, avoid bright lights, i.e. computer screens, during the night. For better sleep, two inhales through nose, 2 seconds, exhale through mouth, eliminate carbon dioxide, 6 seconds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPboWUQNnrM Brian May teaching garage band guitarists like me how to play “Keep Yourself Alive” is fabulous. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos we have to consider our situation “in the context of unprecedented uncertainty and the total absence of guidance from analogies to the past.” But no one can tell you this is the time to buy. Nobody knows. As I put it, “All great investments begin in discomfort.” One thing we know is that there’s great discomfort today. The investor’s goal should be to make a large number of good buys, not just a few perfect ones. To insist on buying only at bottoms and selling only at tops would be paralyzing. Clearly, this process is one of gradual readjustment, not a matter of all-or-nothing. It shouldn’t be the goal to do this only at bottoms and tops. That’s why I so like the headline from Doug Kass that I referred to above: “When the Time Comes to Buy, You Won’t Want To.” It’s not easy to buy when the news is terrible, prices are collapsing and it’s impossible to have an idea where the bottom lies. But doing so should be the investor’s greatest aspiration. . . . markets rarely clear after one massive decline. In 15 bear markets since 1950, only one did not see the initial major low tested within three months . . . In all other cases, the bottom has been tested once or twice. Since news-flow in this crisis will likely worsen before it improves, a repeat seems likely. 9/1/00 - 4/4/01 -27% 4/4/01 - 5/21/01 +19% 5/21/01 - 9/21/01 -26% 9/21/01 - 3/19/02 +22% 3/19/02 - 10/9/02 -33% 10/9/07 - 3/10/08 -18% 3/10/08 - 5/19/08 +12% 5/19/08 - 11/20/08 -47% 11/20/08 - 1/6/09 +25% 1/6/09 - 3/9/09 -27% And so it goes for a while. Thus, as Oaktree’s Wayne Dahl points out, it took until mid-May 2007, or almost seven years, for the stock market to regain the September 2000 highs, and it took until mid-March 2013, or five and a half years, to regain the highs of October 2007. The bottom line for me is that I’m not at all troubled saying (a) markets may well be considerably lower sometime in the coming months and (b) we’re buying today when we find good value. I don’t find these statements inconsistent. https://www.barrons.com/magazine/20200413 Barron’s cover and several articles highlight “the best week since 1974”, perhaps implying a bottom. A week is irrelevant, especially after the S&P 500 fell 34% in 33 days, as Al Root pointed out. https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-s-p-500-had-its-best-week-since-1974-next-up-an-economic-coma-51586560230?mod=past_editions The ’73-’74 bear was 2 years; this is 2 months. Proceed with caution indeed. https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/04/08/an-unprece

Bakes’ Takes Podcast, Episode 7, 4/6/20

Weekly review of Barron’s, Wall Street Journal, The Economist, @TaviCosta, etc.

Bakes' Takes Podcast 3/31/20

Bakes’ Takes Podcast Tuesday March 31, 2020 Show Notes As bad as your life is currently, you are not the Tiger King https://www.netflix.com/title/81115994?source=35 or the other people in that Netflix documentary. At minimum you have better teeth than them. Please watch the show. Great perspective. 25+ years, fourth bear, ’87, ’00, ’08, NOW https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2qixsxtHOU&t=654s https://anchor.fm/bakestakes Bakes’ Takes---Presentation to Pine Hills Investment Club September 10, 2019 9/10/19 3/31/20 SPY (S&P 500 ETF) 298.13 257 -14% GLD (Gold ETF) 140.18 148 +6% Cash Flat Campbell’s Soup (CPB) 45.89 46.11 Flat 0:00 Wow, I have to lose weight. Pinstripes are not as slimming as I thought. (I’ve lost 10 pounds, another stubborn 20 to go). 2:56 Consult an advisor, build core plan to support your lifestyle, cash, insurance, etc. Then invest in individual stocks. 3:44 This is the oldest bull market ever. Monte Carlo simulations don’t have these circumstances in their databases. 5:20 We have never seen $17 trillion of negative yielding government bonds. 5:48 We have never seen U.S. interest rates cut in half in one year. 6:20 You should have 5-10 reasons to buy a stock. 10:30 Own a little more cash, a little more gold because we have not seen this movie before. 12:20 The best-looking chart in the S&P 500 is Campbell Soup/CPB. Reasons to buy—12% of shares short, new CEO, new CFO, new Head of Soup Division, 3.1% dividend yield. Selling $2.5 billion of divestitures not closed yet, balance sheet and dividend coverage improving. Skeptical Wall Street analysts. 16:22 How to sell. Close below the 200-day moving average—sell 1/3. When 50 dma slices down through 200 dma sell another 1/3. By the time 200 dma turns down, sell the last 1/3. $60 for Cisco/CSCO 2000 example. Declined to $12 a year later. 32:00 The stock market impacts who is elected President not the other way around. (3/31/20 update—President Biden now very likely.) 36:53 You don’t own a recession, jobless claims, employment ETF. You own a piece of a business. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/weekly.pdf p.4 “buy the dip” still in favor, bottom not reached until optimism nowhere to be found p. 5 Gold, Bitcoin, risk-parity, greatest algorithmic fund, all down p.6 The more you want to garner potential gains and don’t mind mark-to-market losses, the more you should invest. And vice versa. https://www.macrovoices.com/813-macrovoices-211-jim-bianco Jim Bianco on Erik Townsend’s MACROVoices Podcast. At 42 minutes he discusses stocks AND bonds Declining together. Jim and Erik are both great. https://www.barrons.com/authors/7308 Jack Hough is one of 7 funny investment writers on the planet. I highly recommend his column, podcast and Barron’s Roundtable show on Fox. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5pgG1M_h_U Some Good News—John Krasinski. https://art19.com/shows/the-jeselnik-rosenthal-vanity-project JRVP---Much needed levity in these times. Please send email and/or subscribe and review my Bakes’ Takes Podcast and YouTube Channel, follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Thank you. Bakes

BT 5, September 9, 2019

MarketSmith charts, Status quo

https://marketsmith.investors.com/mstool/Tool/ChartPopout?symbol=SPY&userId=292195381259781

Here was my take from 8/5/19 “SPY gapped down, 2.5x normal volume, China said stopped buying ag from America, devalued yuan, reason doesn’t matter. Watch rally, 50-dma is at 292. My guess is volume will be light, close the gap.

Bottom line—3800+ days, market is old, tired, steroids of Fed and tax cuts, buybacks and earnings not working. It’s just time, stocks are going down.”

I think this still stands. This week is always slow, with many traders/investors escaping for Labor Day. The pattern remains, however, down days volume is largely heavier than up days, thus still seems tired.

Barron’s, August 26, 2019, by Lewis Braham

https://www.barrons.com/articles/investing-in-cryptocurrency-is-risky-this-fund-is-just-a-bad-idea-51566600732

https://marketsmith.investors.com/mstool/Tool/ChartPopout?symbol=GBTC&userId=292195381259781

Lewis highlights ETHE and GBTC. I confess I did like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust/GBTC chart. As he points out the ETF shares have traded at an average 43% premium overall. This makes it off limits in my opinion. Two ways of getting whipsawed indeed.

Comedian Gary Gulman, Bill Gates vs. Donald Trump

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1hP9M0MNdo

Nothing political, just funny, please enjoy!

BT 4, 8/7/19

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY

Monday SPY gapped down 292-->283 -3% +175% volume, Tuesday bounce to 287 +80%, today 10:09 am, testing 281.72 low +300%. First half hour is most emotional trading, last hour much less so. Will watch close with interest but pattern is volume heaviest on down days.

Wall Street Journal, Wednesday, August 7, 2019, by Michael Wursthorn

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-fall-sharply-as-u-s-china-spat-over-yuan-escalates-trade-war-11565057744

Chinese yuan news induced bounce, only a bounce thus far

WSJ, 8/7/19, by Nathaniel Taplin

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-isnt-manipulating-the-yuanits-waiting-out-trump-11565088689

First paragraph, great summation--”China’s leaders appear to have concluded that they won;t secure an acceptable trade deal with President Trump. What they can do is try to weather the next 18 months while inflicting maximum political damage--and hope a weaker U.S. economy delivers a new president.” Bakes’ Take--the election is in 15 months, the stock market will discount any weakness prior to that, the stock market picks the President, again.