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A weekly investment podcast showing you how to make money in up AND DOWN markets.
Episodes
Thursday Aug 08, 2019
Thursday Aug 08, 2019
Stockcharts.com, Strike 1
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy
SPY gapped down, 2.5x normal volume, China said stopped buying ag from America, devalued yuan, reason doesn’t matter. Watch rally, 50-dma is at 292. My guess is volume will be light, close the gap.
Bottom line—3800+ days, market is old, tired, steroids of Fed and tax cuts, buybacks and earnings not working. It’s just time, stocks are going down.
Wall Street Journal, Monday, August 5, 2019, by Dan Weil
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-arent-investors-worried-ask-howard-marks-11564970406
Howard Marks, Oaktree, billionaire, very bright, I devour every word he writes. Re: inflation “I don’t claim to understand it. Everything you’re taught says that current circumstances would dictate inflation. It isn’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just isn’t so.”
Bottom line—Deflation is the problem. Fed and other central banks are likely losing the fight. My example—Your house is $100k, borrowed $80k=Equity is $20k. House goes to $150k, Equity is $70k. House goes to $50k, equity is -$50k. Brings down value of next house, neighborhood, etc.
Barron’s, August 5, 2019, by Jack Hough
https://www.barrons.com/articles/total-addressable-market-is-in-profits-are-out-51564775764
UBER--$5.7 TRILLION for rides, $2.8T meal delivery, $3.8T freight, $1600 for each person on Earth. “Don’t think of UBER as a company valued at $71 billion that is expected to burn through $9B over three years. Think of it is a company that so far has reached only 0.1% of its TAM.”
Barron’s, August 5, 2019, by Jack Hough
“There are about 1,350 enclosed malls in the US, but only 200 to 400 are needed” Randall Konik, Jefferies analyst
Thursday Aug 08, 2019
Thursday Aug 08, 2019
Barron’s, July 29, 2019, by Randall Forsyth
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-feds-coming-rate-cut-could-be-a-blunder-51564187667
Do the opposite of the Great Depression. Instead of letting banks fail, bail out Wall Street. Instead of trying to balance the budget we ran mega-deficits. Instead of letting money supply shrink, Fed slashed interest rates to zero quintupled the size of its balance sheet.
Deflation is the real enemy. Ask Japan. Strong yen hurt them. Trump will do what he can to drive dollar down.
Barron’s, July 29, 2019, by Jack Hough
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-some-investors-are-buying-bonds-that-lose-money-51564179385
Greece missed IMF deadline in 2015, now below US 10 year yields. Switzerland’s 50-year yield went negative, it and Denmark all maturities below zero.
Poor predictor of trouble for stocks. Japan and Germany in 2016. Both stock markets up modestly. US hit 1.37%, our market up huge.
Monday Aug 05, 2019
Monday Aug 05, 2019
Wall Street Journal, June 15-16, 2019 by Jason Zweig
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-yogi-berra-would-have-said-about-this-bull-market-11560524404
Wall Street Journal, July 23, 2019 by Costas Paris, Benoit Faucon, Rory Jones
Wall Street Journal, July 23, 2019 by Aresu Eqbali, Sune Engel Rasmussen
The Economist, July 20th-26th, 2019, wish they would list authors
https://www.economist.com/business/2019/07/20/profits-are-down-in-america-inc
Barron’s, July 22, 2019, by Andrew Bary