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A weekly investment podcast showing you how to make money in up AND DOWN markets.
Episodes
Saturday May 22, 2021
Saturday May 22, 2021
Gray Swan! New segment. China vs. Taiwan. Escalation would hurt stocks. Keep your head on a swivel.
Thursday May 20, 2021
Thursday May 20, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday
May 15, 2021
:25 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.
:39 ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you’d like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.
2:22 Patreon levels. Weekly call with me, teach technical analysis, etc. You help me design the show. Guests I should reach out to. Text like I send to my sons. 610-331-4283.
3:40 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
3:55 #GME—Need high volume breakout now! 11.1 mil shs
5:10 #AMC—Big volume, short interest high 93 mil shs, close above $14.54 launch point
6:13 Bakes’ Take –#GME—Now would be great, otherwise wedge didn’t work, #AMC—WSB asks about it, looks bullish
6:45 Charlie, TX—ETF question--The ETF uses an authorized participant (AP) to form creation units. For an ETF tracking the S&P 500, an AP would form a creation unit of shares in all the S&P 500 companies in a weighting equal to that of the underlying index. The AP would then transfer the creation unit to the ETF provider on an equal NAV value basis. In return, the AP would receive a similarly valued block of shares in the ETF. The AP can then sell those shares in the open market. The creation units are usually anywhere from 25,000 to 600,000 shares of the ETF.2
The redemption mechanism helps keep the market and NAV values in line. The AP can easily arbitrage any discrepancies between the market value and the NAV during the course of the trading day. The ETF shares' market value naturally fluctuates during the trading day. If the market value gets too high compared to the NAV, the AP can step in and buy the ETF's underlying constituent components while simultaneously selling ETF shares.
8:24 Bobby—Economy extended? Stimulus, unemployment? vs. stocks? (my take)
9:24 #AAPL—great eps, stock didn’t care, market discounted
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScAeHsXIUqI
10:30 https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-is-playing-with-fire-11620684980
Stanley Druckenmiller, Christian Broda—The emergency conditions are behind us. No need to buy $120 million in mortgage, bond purchases.
11:42 Bakes’ Take—BAC, JPM, other AP’s looking for arbitrage, likely too small, fleeting for us to exploit. AAPL, tech, etc.
Stocks are extended. Druckenmiller concerns apply to Congress/Biden as well. Focus on what it is rather than what I think should happen.
14:07 Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.
Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
14:43 Sold HERO, made 14%, sell discipline! PTJ-nothing good happens below the 200 dma, (after midnight)
16:11 Bakes’ Take—Like gaming, esports, but the money has been made…for now. #BakesTakes_ #bitcoin #uranium #cannabis #inflation #copper #sugar #soybeans #wheat #corn #blockchain #GME #retail #shortbonds
17:18 Bakes’ Takes-Gray Swan, new segment
19:41 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-fed-is-drucked-and-an-interview-with-jim-chanos/id1545205930?i=1000521689459
Druckenmiller OpEd, speaks to Bobby’s question, great discussion with Guy, Dan, and Dan
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20:15 Bakes’ Take—Watch markets if bond buying is tapered. Needs to be done very gingerly. Please see 2018.
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
21:07 By Gwynn Guilford
23:19
They don’t have the luxury of ignoring the food and energy costs that are backed out of the price metrics preferred by policy makers, and they can’t help but notice the 17% jump in existing-home prices that isn’t directly figured into such gauges. For the average American household, food, energy, and shelter combined represent roughly 50% of income before taxes.
23:55 Bakes’ Take—It’s not the 70’s…yet. But it’s not bullish. Buy and hold if you want to…but nothing good happens under the 200 dma.
Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets/Posts of the Week!
Bakes’ Take— Newsletters of the Week
Bakes’ Take—
26:16 Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
Much-needed levity…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqgcqZZt4Rg
26:43 Pablo Francisco - They Put It Out There - Little Tortilla Boy 2
Tuesday May 11, 2021
Tuesday May 11, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday
May 8, 2021
:25 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.
:40 ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you’d like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.
2:00 Patreon levels. Weekly call with me, teach technical analysis, etc. You help me design the show. 610-331-4283.
2:53 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
3:09 #GME
Bakes’ Take –Do or die for #GME.
Charlie, TX, Bobby—ETF question, extended, next week
Bakes’ Take—
4:32 Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.
Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
24.53% YTD, STILL allergic to red, GBTC 208%, URNM 124%, etc.
GBTC
URNM
Bakes’ Take—Bitcoin, Uranium, etc.
Bakes’ Takes-Gray Swan, new segment
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/05/01/chinas-growing-military-confidence-puts-taiwan-at-risk
8:50 China/Taiwan—The Economist
9:55 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
10:00 The Farrcast, at 21 minutes, political strategist Dan Mahafee, China rapidly building ships, threatening Taiwan
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trouble-at-basecamp-bezos-fights-for-moon-listener/id1073226719?i=1000519418319
10:40 Kara Swisher, Scott Galloway, at 39 mins. Peloton creating Match rival, fit/hot, logical, Elon Musk sounding like Jack Welch (my comparison not there’s), 25c/93c last q eps SELLING Bitcoin, he can tweet and impact price, SEC? 50 mins. this/Dogecoin SNL skits?
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Bakes’ Take—
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
14:21 Bakes’ Take—CNBC corn, 7 year high
Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets/Posts of the Week!
15:22 Jim Bianco—Every valuation metric, record high!
16:05 Jim Bianco—Bloomberg Commodities Index, best ytd ever!
Bakes’ Take— Newsletters of the Week
The Bear Traps Report
16:40 Copper 10-year highs, own/like COPX!
17:20 Lumber has never been this high!
18:05 Margin Debt suggests SPX heads down 4.5-6 months.
18:51
19:44 Bloomberg Commodities highest since 9/12.
19:55 URNM breaking out!
21:12 Stock allocations ATH!
21:37
Bakes’ Take—Sprott game changer! Bullish for #Uranium.
24:26 Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
Much-needed levity…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reuJjGhgU_k&t=36s
25:03 Best of Anthony Jeselnik
Thursday Apr 29, 2021
Tuesday Apr 27, 2021
Tuesday Apr 27, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday
April 24, 2021
:25 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.
‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you’d like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.
2:14 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
2:31 #GME
3:56 Bakes’ Take – #GME breakout seems unlikely but still watch this week, AMC down volume bit less positive than GME
5:43 Charlie, TX
Thanks a lot for another great episode - love the episodes lately (longer form ones as well as the abbreviated tid bits). I have a couple questions/suggestions below. Any and all help would be appreciated.
- If I'm a young guy trying to gain exposure to the booming gaming industry (gambling/betting not video games) what do you think is the best way to gain exposure here? I think you've mentioned some ETFs and single stocks, but what do you think about Penn vs Draft Kings? Is it safer to just play in the space through the ETFs?
6:23 Roundhill Sports Betting—BETZ, down volume, had helluva run
7:23 VanEck Vector Gaming/BJK—very similar
8:01 PENN-$4-$142-$89/$2.28 ’22 39x, growing 40%
9:16 ETF’s vs. individual stocks, interviews sheet, suppliers, customers, competitors
11:08 Individual investor advantage
12:41 DKNG—Losing money, both lot of good news priced in
Like cannabis, states need revenues, legalizing
13:41
- What are your thoughts on Doge Coin? Is there room to make legit money there?
14:24 James McKintosh
14:49 Dogecoin—parabolas correct 80%+, below a dime in 6 months likely
It’s a joke…literally, maybe, greater fool?
- If you were to create a basket for tickers that'll benefit from the explosion of partying, concerts, etc that will likely come onto the scene this summer, what would these be?
16:00 Invesco Leisure and Entertainment/PEJ—looks like gambling stocks, market has largely discounted
16:55 What are your thoughts on eToro?
https://www.etoro.com/en-us/about/
Don’t know, but interested, please send your feedback
Thanks a ton as always.
Best,
Charlie
17:30-20:00 YouTube-ACE CLOP—No offense, not establishment, not a reporter, takes=opinions, establishment/market doesn’t care, #GME shorts way down
20:20 YOLO
20:54 MJ
21:43
22:19 Bakes’ Take—Fun week for #GME, XRT my way to play, AMC ok, gambling ETF’s look extended/tired, live entertainment too, no joke no dogecoin, prefer YOLO, Bob and others please share with your kids
Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.
23:05 Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
Bakes’ Take-Stay the course!
23:40 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
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Bakes’ Take—
Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
25:10
25:55 Andrew Duehren, They will meet in the middle, as always, cap gains will go the same way
27:26 Bakes’ Take—Listen! Tax plan negative impact on stocks, crypto likely reverses this week
Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets/Posts of the Week!
27:41 Fido’s Jurrien Timmer, looks like 3/09-4/10, QE1 ended, Fed stopping bond buying?
Please see dogecoin
29:10 Bakes’ Take—14 mos. up, time for breather, like Josh Brown
29:25 Bakes’ Take— Newsletters of the Week
Bakes’ Take—Sell in May, go away, at least adjust expectations, dovetails with 2010 analog
30:38 Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
Much-needed levity…
https://www.youtube.com/user/jimgaffigancomic
31:09 Jim Gaffigan—Bars are Adult Playgrounds
Tuesday Apr 20, 2021
Tuesday Apr 20, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday
April 17, 2021
:24 Why I focus on $212 for GameStop #GME breakout!
Thank you. 12K+ views, doubled subscribers, please join us! Subscribe (YouTube and podcast, Apple, Spotify etc.), share, like and review.
1:10 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.
‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you’d like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.
2:40 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
2:54 GME—wedge ends in 2 weeks, $212, gap filled
5:03
5:48 Mike—RIOT is 3.94% of BLOK
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKE1tAyCSyo
6:57 Amplify CEO, BLOK will buy Coinbase
7:30 Andrew, DE—Books
Bill O’Neil, How to Make Money in Stocks
Peter Lynch, One Up on Wall Street
9:27 Options, not for me, but if interested
https://marketrebellion.com/
11:36 Matt, PA—MP
MP Materials/MP—Rare earths miner. 2ndy March, future dilution. Temporary hold or take gains. 200 dma $23.39 support, 200 dma, not ideal vs. $30.64 current price
13:22 John D., PA—Where to invest some extra money
BT Invest in themes/trends on top
401(k) SPX, int’l, stay in market
Debt down? Don’t have debt 72-75
Term Insurance Take care of loved ones
Cash, Gold, Bitcoin 6 mos. liquid, inflation/deflation
16:37 Vs. institutions, for bitcoin—hope.com, Pomp newsletter, a16z
17:16
17:24
https://www.anthonypompliano.com/newsletter
17:30
https://a16z.simplecast.com/episodes/crypto-an-oral-essay-3c3yB_de
18:04 Bakes’ Take—Fun 2 weeks for HODLers, still bullish on bitcoin/blockchain, 2 books worth your time to start, options not for me but check out Najarians, invest top of the pyramid, vs. institutions, bitcoin education
Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.
18:48 Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
Bakes’ Take-Stay the course!
19:10 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://www.npr.org/2021/04/07/985041291/robinhood-vlad-tenev
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19:56 Bakes’ Take—RH has growing pains, has no incentive to suppress trading
20:20 Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
Brian Sullivan, CNBC
21:20
Danielle DiMartino Booth—Fed #Clueless
22:17 Bakes’ Take—Signs of froth, Fed stirring
22:34 Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets/Posts of the Week!
24:46 Bakes’ Take—Inflation going north, #shortbonds
24:53 Bakes’ Take— Newsletters of the Week
The Bear Traps Report
27:19 Bakes’ Take—Copper up, Coinbase taking share in crypto investors portfolios, inflation again
27:34 Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
Much-needed levity…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Ilu0Px_wE4
Nikki Glaser—Best Roast Moments
Sunday Apr 18, 2021
Tuesday Apr 13, 2021
Tuesday Apr 13, 2021
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday
April 10, 2021
:23
1) Cut your losses!
2) Hold your winners!
3) See #1!
:33 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.
1:04 ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you’d like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.
2:11 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.
Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!
2:25 Jack—FIVG? Did not have in system, now do
Fact Sheet
T, NOK, zzzz…
4:50 Hey Mr. Bakes - attached is a voice recording for a question I had for you about selling discipline. One thing I wanted to add to this question is about your -15% general rule of thumb. Is it when your investment is down 15% at any point or do you have this discipline for a set amount of time? For example, if your investment is down 15% over 1 month vs 3 months vs a year and if that comes into factor when you evaluate selling a holding to cut losses. Thank you, as always, for your insight!
Best,
Murph
8:29 -15% Always
9:53 Please connect with me, LNKD, etc. DM, fire away
10:19 Market tells me how long to hold.
URNM-Years, I hope
12:02 Sell discipline--RCL
13:48 Mark Cuban, Ethereum
15:08 Watch for “Buffet effect.”
17:20 ETHE—Triangle, looking better, breakout! 80/20?
20:05 Bakes’ Take—5G? not for me for now, cut losses 15%, works, hold your winners
20:21 Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.
20:30 Bakes’ Takes—My Themes/Groups
Bakes’ Take-No change
21:06 Bakes’ Take—Podcasts of the Week!
https://www.businesscasual.fm/our-economy-needs-workers-to-learn-new-skills/
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Bakes’ Take—Check out CareerKarma
22:08 Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!
If you’ve been vaccinated, there’s almost no direct safety benefit—to yourself or others—of wearing a mask.
If you’re unable to get vaccinated, it’s reasonable to expect others to accept infringements on their freedom as a precaution. Not if you refuse to get vaccinated.
Dr. Saphier is a physician at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, an assistant professor at Weill Cornell Medical College, and author of “Panic Attack.”
24:00 XRT—4% GME, retail will catch a lot of money
24:43
Let me be blunt: Tech stocks are still alarmingly expensive.
Sacconaghi counts 366 tech stocks currently meeting the 15-plus sales-multiple criteria, up from 25 in 2017. It’s the highest total since 2000, when a staggering 1,540 traded above 15 times sales. We know what happened to the market after that.
25:50 Bakes’ Take—Stocks are expensive, bull with head on a swivel
26:07 Bakes’ Take—Charts/Tweets/Posts of the Week!
30:36 Bakes’ Take—At extremes, see #1
30:37 Bakes’ Take— Newsletters of the Week
Bear Traps Report
34:34 Bakes’ Take—Like copper, biotech not so much
34:39 Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like.
Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.
Have a great week. Bakes
Much needed levity…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKgIp2rPwNI
35:08 Heavy Metal Baby covers Metallica—Enter Sandman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOLlfPPTld0
35:29 The Funniest Roasts & Comebacks by Comedians—Jay Leno, Louis CK, Bill Burr, others
Saturday Apr 10, 2021
Friday Apr 09, 2021
Friday Apr 09, 2021
Bakes' Takes Podcast 4/3/21 3:50 My bullish themes! Bitcoin, uranium, cannabis, and more!